Despite the economic difficulties and the migration crisis, the president retains the support of more than half of the population.

It is 8 o’clock in the morning on Habib-Bourguiba Avenue, in the heart of Tunis. Arrived from Kairouan, in the center of the country, Lotfi Tarrach, 49, joined a handful of other supporters of Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed, near a café located a few meters from the municipal theater, their planned meeting place. But the police, deployed in large numbers on this artery, forced the small group to change their program. Because, soon, several dozen activists from the National Salvation Front, the main opposition coalition, are to take over the premises to protest against the power in place and, unlike the supporters of Kaïs Saïed, they have officially requested authorization to manifest.

“We are here to celebrate Republic Day and the July 25 process, we shouldn’t need permission,” Lotfi said. If the heat wave may have deterred participants, the popularity of the president remains high, as confirmed by the Emrhod Consulting poll of June 14 which credits him with more than 50% of favorable opinion – against more than 80% in July 2021 – and nearly 70% of voting intentions in the first round of a presidential election. Indeed, according to the majority of Tunisians, the Head of State is not responsible for inflation, shortages, water and electricity cuts, the migratory, economic, and political crisis, or even the management of climate change.

“Kaïs Saïed wants all the powers without assuming the slightest responsibility and he always accuses others of conspiracy. It is far from unanimous, but it resonates with the part of the population,” analyzes researcher Mahdi Elleuch, co-author of La Tentation populist (Cérès, 2020).

Two years ago, on July 25, 2021, Kaïs Saïed had claimed the existence of an “imminent danger”, in the midst of a political and health crisis (linked to the Covid-19 epidemic), to grant himself full powers, according to a personal reading of Article 80 of the Constitution, which allows the use of “exceptional” measures. Benefiting from the discredit of the political parties that have assumed power since 2011, and relying on an anti-system discourse, the Tunisian president then dismissed the head of government and suspended the work of Parliament, even preventing the deputies from uniting there, with the help of the army. Less than two months later, he further expanded his power by suspending the Constitution, before dissolving the Superior Council of the Judiciary, in February 2022, then the Assembly of People’s Representatives, in March.

Repressive shift

On July 25, 2022, the new Constitution wanted by Kaïs Saïed was approved by referendum, with 95% of the votes cast, but a participation rate of barely 30%. In parallel with the dismantling of the institutions born of the revolutionary process, the regime of Kaïs Saïed took a repressive turn towards the opposition, particularly the Islamo-conservative Ennahda party, accused of being responsible for the crises that the country has known during the ten years of democratic transition… A time that supporters of the current regime now call “dark decade”. Twenty opponents have been imprisoned since the beginning of the year, mainly accused of plotting against state security.

“To date, I have never regretted having supported Kaïs Saïed”, swears Ali Sghaier, 53, who has supported the president since his election in 2019. For this resident of Sfax, the country’s second city, the coup de force of July 25, 2021, was both a “surprise” and a necessary step for the establishment of “participatory democracy”, announced by the Head of State. “They talk about a coup, but how could an elected president make a coup? he says. “Kaïs Saïed’s popularity has remained the same with people who understood his project. Those who only see the lack of semolina, flour or sugar and who think that Kaïs Saïed is responsible for it are mistaken”, he says.

Mounir Bouzgarrou, an activist in Monastir during Mr. Saïed’s victory in 2019, also continues to support the Tunisian president, but from afar. Tired, this 40-year-old did not want to go to Tunis to celebrate the second anniversary of the “July 25 process” for fear of being taken to task by his political opponents. “In the media, we only talk about negative things, it’s normal that people are fed up,” he notes. Unlike Lotfi Harrach and Ali Sghaier, Mr. Bouzgarrou considers that Kaïs Saïed would make a serious mistake by running for the presidential election scheduled for 2024 and for which he has not yet applied. “The president’s problem is that he did not know how to surround himself”, he regrets, affirming that the latter has “spent all his energy”: “We need another person, who would carry the same project, but with more force.”

Along with other residents of Sbikha, a locality near Kairouan, Lotfi Tarrach hopes to take advantage of the creation of “community businesses”, one of Mr. Saïed’s flagship measures since taking power. In theory, these entities should benefit from public financial support and the provision of state land. But, according to Lotfi, local officials are blocking any initiative. “People lie to the president telling him that everything is fine,” he denounces. In Tunis, he came precisely with his comrades to ask for the “cleaning up of the administration”, without ever questioning his support for Kaïs Saïed. “He called, in Rome[July 23, at the International Conference on Development and Migration], to cancel Africa’s debt. He is not only president of Tunisia, he is the king of Africa,” says Lotfi emphatically and with a very personal view of the president’s popularity outside Tunisia’s borders.