The drought and war in Ukraine have brought the issue of national food sovereignty to the fore.
Under the effect of water stress, Morocco will be forced to significantly increase its imports of basic products, in particular wheat, oilseeds and sugar, the prices of which have risen sharply, sometimes exceeding double. This is expected to put a strain on the Kingdom’s foreign currency holdings and the national economy.
The current season will be one of the weakest campaigns of the last 30 years. In the best of cases, cereal harvests would not exceed 20 million quintals, hence a decline of nearly 80% compared to the previous year. The repercussions will inevitably be felt on growth and on other sectors.
Several lessons should be learned from this unprecedented crisis. First of all, national food sovereignty is highly fragile. For its vital needs, Morocco is totally dependent on foreign countries. Certain strategic choices developed within the framework of the Maroc Vert plan are beginning to generate risky consequences. Encouraging farmers to convert from the cultivation of cereals, legumes and other products in high demand to arboriculture and other niche sectors has generated adverse effects. The typical example is that of the Gharb region, which has abandoned the cultivation of early vegetables in favor of red fruits.
Currently, the region produces very few tomatoes and many strawberries. Suddenly, the prices of tomatoes increased significantly and those of strawberries fell, creating a strong imbalance in the market. The looting scenes recorded recently in a weekly souk around Sidi Kacem are due to a low supply of tomatoes. Traders took the opportunity to double prices, which generated discontent among citizens.
In the Zagora region, several sectors, including watermelon, which have no strategic interest have developed, leading to overexploitation of the water table and creating strong pressure on water resources. The authorities have begun to restrict the areas of this culture.
Regarding water policy, Morocco has also made strategic mistakes. Necessary investments have not been launched. As a result, several dams on the Oum Rabii wadi towards the southern regions are close to drying up. The lack of rain does not explain everything. In question, the use of reasoned irrigation has not been generalized.
