Tunisian Prime Minister Najla Bouden was dismissed without explanation on Tuesday, August 1, 2023, by President Kaïs Saïed. What are the reasons and what are the risks for an over-indebted country seeking foreign aid?
President Saïed was unhappy, according to the media, with his handling of the shortage of flour, and therefore of bread, in subsidized bakeries. “The government is a game of fuses, the important thing for the president is that nothing is ever his fault,” essayist Hatem Nafti told AFP, denouncing “a regime that lives on scapegoats: judges, prisoners of conscience and lately sub-Saharan migrants.”
According to economists, the shortage of subsidized baguettes is due to a shortage of grain supplies as suppliers no longer extend credit to Tunisia, which is in debt to the tune of 80% of its GDP.
Since the 1970s, the State has centralized the acquisition of many basic products (flour, oil, sugar, milk, petrol) in order to put them back on the market at affordable prices. According to Nafti, Bouden, appointed in October 2021, had become “very unpopular in the president’s entourage” and even in the opposition because she was simply considered a “reassuring showcase for Westerners”. Faced with the bread crisis and the deterioration of the economy, “curiously it is the government and the opposition who bear the brunt of popular anger while the regime is hyper-presidential,” said political scientist Youssef Cherif of Columbia. Global Center. Changing Prime Minister could serve to”to show that the president is listening to popular demands,” he said.
Democratically elected in October 2019, Saied granted himself full powers on July 25, 2021, and governs by decree. Since this coup, he has already dismissed half a dozen ministers.
What are Kais Saied’s intentions? Some experts have planned the appointment of a political profile to help the president prepare for the presidential elections in the fall of 2024. But the new head of government Ahmed Hachani is a retired former central bank executive. “His name and background don’t matter. He is only there to implement the will of the president”, according to Nafti. “Saïed does not believe in the independence of the government or of the ministers”, underlines the political scientist Slaheddine Jourchi. It is probable, according to Cherif, that“Sovereign ministries will not be affected and that the reshuffle will be limited to ministers who have had problems in recent months. Economy Minister Samir Saïed, at the forefront of talks with the IMF on a new loan of 2 billion dollars, could be on the list. “With Kaïs Saïed, he is on two irreconcilable lines, it would be logical”, underlines Nafti.
What are the international consequences? It is difficult to imagine a continuation of discussions with the IMF, which Saïed disputes by proposing “a new global financial framework”. Hundreds of public companies in debt, and two measures proposed by the Bouden government in exchange for the loan are rejected by President Saïed who says he is looking for financing elsewhere. “It goes in line with his Third World and populist rhetoric and helps solidify his popularity. It will achieve this with the help of Europeans and certain Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia which recently announced a loan and a donation of 500 million dollars. , adds the researcher.
In mid-July, the European Union concluded a “strategic partnership” with Tunis, which provides for the payment of 255 million euros this year, including 150 million as a direct contribution to the budget. Brussels could also provide in the future a “macro-financial aid” of 900 million euros, which should be conditional on political reforms and respect for human rights which have regressed in Tunisia, according to NGOs.
“What matters most for Europe is that Kaïs Saïed continues to protect its borders and retain sub-Saharan migrants”, explains Nafti. This aid, together with tourism receipts and remittances from the diaspora, “will give public finances a respite until the winter”, according to Cherif, but “other funds will be necessary for the future” and the risk of “cessation will continue to be an option”.
