The beginnings of resolving the crisis are coming up against interference from foreign powers and militia leaders who are profiting greatly from the country’s unrest.
Gathered in Tunis, 120 members from the two parliaments, one in Tripoli controlled by Prime Minister Dbeibah, and the other in the East led by Marshal Haftar, have agreed to move towards elections to end the Libyan crisis.
Cairo Conference
A few days later, under the aegis of the Arab League, representatives of the three state entities, the Presidential Council, the High Council of State, and the House of Representatives signed an agreement. In particular, it provides for the appointment of a tight government of technocrats, whose main task would be the organization of elections.
By refusing this process, Prime Minister Dbeibah only reinforces his isolation. Most of his supporters are now missing, such as Al-Seddik Omar al-Kabir, the governor of the Central Bank. It is also strongly contested by the street. The economic crisis continues to deepen: the Libyan dinar is losing its value, aggravating inflation because almost all foodstuffs and goods are imported. For the anniversary of the Libyan Revolution on February 17, the Prime Minister embarked on lavish spending. The people present protested loudly against this waste of money, while most civil servants are experiencing salary delays. Dbeibah spent more time placing his extended family members in the state apparatus than seeking to resolve the political and economic crisis.
Profitable chaos
This umpteenth attempt at a political settlement is likely to fail due to two obstacles. The first is interference from foreign powers. The Tripoli government benefits from the support of Turkey, which takes the opportunity to get its hands on oil in the Libyan Sea. Haftar is supported by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates as well as by Russia via Wagner’s troops.
France is not left out. If it officially supports the efforts of the United Nations envoy Abdoulaye Bathily, it secretly supports Haftar’s troops militarily, alongside Wagner. The discovery of weapons from French stocks, such as Javelin missiles, or the death of three soldiers during a helicopter accident in Benghazi confirms this commitment.
The second obstacle is that the situation of confusion allows most of the leaders backed by the militias to enrich themselves by plundering oil resources and engaging in all kinds of highly lucrative illicit trade. This ranges from fuel trafficking to drug trafficking and the most sordid, that of sub-Saharan migrants ransomed or reduced to forced labor.
If, for European countries, this situation is not ideal, they are perfectly fine with it as long as the militias play the police and prevent migrants from embarking for Europe.
