In an interview, Professor Najib Akesbi, a Moroccan expert in economics, believes that contrary to IMF forecasts, the watchword currently concerning the forecast is “uncertainty”. It also analyzes the economy of Morocco and compares it with that of Algeria.
In its April report on forecasts and projections on world wealth measured by GDP at the current dollar price, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) informs that by 2026, the total GDP of the ten largest African economies will ‘will establish at 2.877 billion dollars, against 1.739 billion in 2020, an increase of more than 65%.
Regarding the Maghreb countries, Morocco leads with GDPs of 154 and 162 billion dollars respectively for 2025 and 2026, thus surpassing for the first time Algeria which, according to the same report, will record GDPs of 152 and 153 billion dollars for the same period.
Are the IMF’s projections for 2026 realistic? What is the margin of error?
Algeria having officially spent 1,000 billion dollars during the 20 years of power of the deposed ex-President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, how to explain the decline in its wealth (according to the IMF) in the face of Morocco which did not have the same means financial? Finally, on what basis should the evolution of the economies of these two countries be compared?
Professor Najib Akesbi, professor and researcher in economics, was asked to answer these questions.
“To foresee the evolution of the situation”?
“Before judging the forecasts of the IMF experts, we must first say a word about the methodology used in the production of such studies”, underlines Professor Akesbi, because “the results are necessarily conditioned by the initial assumptions which them. melt ”.
As such, “the first parameter to be taken seriously into consideration is that linked to the Covid-19 pandemic”, explains the expert, recalling that “to date, we cannot say that this disease which has plagued all the world economy is ready to be defeated. Everything will depend on the capacity of the countries to overcome this pandemic or not”.
And to continue: “the lack of quantities of vaccines, the doubt about their effectiveness and their side effects, the slowness of vaccination campaigns and the appearance of new aggressive variants of the virus – as is currently the case in India where the ‘we are talking about a third wave – we are told that the forecasts announced by the IMF are rather optimistic”.
“They are based on the assumption that the pandemic will be overcome and that the damage it will have caused to the global economy will not cripple the recovery.”
In this sense, Professor Akesbi believes that “currently, we are in a period where the keyword is ‘uncertainty. No expert or any national or international institution, including the IMF and the World Bank (WB), can predict the evolution of the situation even over a year, what to say then of a period of five years, it is not possible!”.
Moroccan economy
The development model of the Moroccan economy is articulated around two pillars. Indeed, according to Professor Akesbi, “the first consists in making the private sector the real engine of development in terms of initiative, creation, and innovation, investment, etc. The second relies on the virtues of good integration into the world economy and its ability to drive growth rates upwards ”.
He adds that unfortunately “this model has failed”. “The king made the observation in official speeches in 2014 and 2017, during which he noted that this model has proved” unsuitable to meet the pressing demands and the growing needs of citizens, to reduce categorical disparities and territorial differences and to achieve social justice”.
In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, “Morocco has opted for a response by sanitary confinement, introduced on March 20, 2020”, recalls Najib Akesbi.
“This sudden stop of all activity caused a massive fall in production, extended to the sectors of industry, commerce, through transport, tourism, catering, shows, and leisure,” he says. . “The authorities have set up a support system for the most deprived by granting them between 800 and 1,200 dirhams depending on the size of the households”.
“No less than 5.5 million heads of households had registered. If we take the average of 4.6 people per household, according to the 2014 population census, we reach the figure of 25.5 million people, or nearly 70% of the population ”, deplores- he.
Comparison and Conclusion
Regarding the issue of the production of cars, parts for aeronautics and other industries in place in Morocco within the framework of partnerships with foreigners, Prof. Akesbi indicates that “these investments were made in a logic which concerns only foreign operators and not a strategic vision of the Moroccan state […]. Tomorrow, if these partners decide to leave Morocco, all these sectors will fall into ruin in the weeks following their departure ”.
Finally, the specialist judges that “the two countries have a lot to do in terms of governance, structural reforms and the renovation of their political system. Between Algeria, which has a rentier economy dependent on oil, and Morocco, whose growth depends on rainfall and where the added value of the so-called productive sectors is insufficient and depends for more than half on imports, each country must face its own often acute difficulties ”.
“In terms of the economic development model, everything remains to be done in the two countries,” he concludes.
