Algerian Gas: Optimistic Forecasts from the United States

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Algerian gas production is doing well, as shown by figures from the EIA, the US government energy information agency.

Despite the increase in internal demand, the investments and upgrades carried out should allow Algeria to export more gas, analyzes this American organization in substance.

In its latest statistics, the EIA notes that Algeria’s gas production in 2021 has never been so high since such data began to be compiled in 1980.

Algerian gas fields had produced 9.9 billion cubic feet (about 280 million cubic meters) per day during the year 2021, i.e. before the increase in European demand and the increase in flows to certain countries. Over ten years, Algerian production has increased by 23.4% (8 billion cubic feet per day in 2011).

Algeria’s production and exports are expected to increase further following the numerous contracts signed in 2022 with international firms intended to strengthen extraction and transport capacities, particularly to Europe.

Since the start of the outbreak of war in Ukraine in February 2022, Europe has turned to southern markets, notably Algeria, to reduce imports of Russian hydrocarbons.

The increase in flows to Italy is already effective thanks to the exploitation of the unused capacities of the Enrico Mattei gas pipeline which connects the two countries.

In February 2022, the President of the Republic Abdelmadjid Tebboune announced investments of 40 billion dollars over 4 years to develop hydrocarbon production and export capacities.

In June, he announced Algeria’s ambition to double the quantities of gas exported in the short term, then estimated at half of the 100 billion m3 produced each year.

The concern of Algeria is the increase of its internal consumption which absorbs 50% of its production, because of the growing needs of household consumption and industry.

Moreover, the EIA puts the figures for 2021 into perspective by recalling that ten years ago, the proportion of quantities exported was higher. About 60% of Algerian gas production in 2011 was intended for export, indicates the American agency, which does not specify this proportion for the year 2021.

In addition to the increase in internal demand, the hydrocarbons sector in Algeria suffered for a long time from the lack of investment, which influenced the evolution of gas and oil production. 

Gas: Algeria’s internal demand is increasing…

However, things have started to improve over the past few years. In its report for the year 2022, Sonatrach reported the increase in its gas and oil production to 189.6 million tonnes of oil equivalent (against 185.2 million TOE in 2021), an increase of 2 %. The Algerian gas giant’s exports brought in $60 billion in 2022, according to the same report.

Despite the increase in internal demand, the EIA expects Algeria’s natural gas export capacity to increase thanks to recent upgrades to export infrastructure. Upgrades “give Algeria the possibility of exporting more of its natural gas”, writes the American agency on its website.

Recalling that Algeria’s proven reserves are estimated at 159,000 billion cubic feet (about 4,500 billion cubic meters), the EIA highlights some of the country’s export capacities, by gas pipelines and LNG carriers.

Algeria has three transcontinental gas pipelines linking it to southern Europe (GME and Medgaz to Spain and Transmed to Italy). While the GME which passes through Morocco was closed in 2021, the Medgaz saw its capacity increased the same year from 283 to 378 billion cubic feet. The project for a second gas pipeline to Italy (Galsi) is also relaunched in 2022.

The EIA also points to Algeria’s non-negligible capacities in the production and export of LNG (four terminals) and the extension and modernization works envisaged at the Skikda terminal.

In 2021, Turkey was the first destination for Algerian LNG with 38% of the country’s exports.