ANALYSIS. On the program, general, legislative, and presidential elections. A look back at the main elections that will keep the continent in suspense.
Where is democracy on the African continent in 2024? Elections due to be held in several countries over the next twelve months could help answer this question. In total, ten countries will experience national consultations during the year: legislative and regional elections in Togo (in the first quarter of the year) and nine presidential or general elections distributed between the Comoros (January), Senegal ( February), South Africa (May); Mauritania (June); Rwanda (July); Tunisia and Mozambique (October); Ghana and Algeria (December).
Multiple issues surround these upcoming electoral events, such as that surrounding the regularity of the ballots. Several countries preparing to hold elections have experienced turbulent scenarios in recent years. The re-election of Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi during the 2019 presidential election is one example, among others.
Elections do not necessarily rhyme with democracy
For analysts and observers, the post-electoral protests in Africa can be explained in part by the fact that the alternation game remains a significant challenge on the continent. Indeed, although countries like Senegal or Ghana have a culture of ballots that result in the recognition by the loser of the victory of the winner, the feeling of elections with predetermined results is best shared in many countries. other countries, like the Rwanda of Paul Kagame, candidate for his succession for a fifth term.
The electoral deadlines in ten countries arrive in a general African context marked by mixed economic growth. The result of internal factors but above all multiple exogenous shocks following the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine. If we draw a general picture, some countries on the continent are facing double-digit inflation, for others a payment default. In any case, the next leaders will have a lot to do to redress the situation. Among the countries most in difficulty are Tunisia and Ghana, which had to resort to the IMF to breathe new life into their economies.
Some enter the election year under a relatively tense national socio-political situation. This is for example the case of Senegal where the last year of the mandate of the outgoing president, Macky Sall, was marked by violence against the backdrop of a judicial soap opera in which one of the opponents and presidential candidate, Ousmane Sonko, is The main actor. For several observers, future elections could help resolve this social tension; for others, the hardest part is yet to come.
In some countries, a subject that could particularly determine the choice of voters is that of the management of declared or dormant armed conflicts. This could be the case in Mozambique, a country that is facing terrorist armed violence. In addition, education, health, and the fight against corruption are also major concerns that could arise during electoral debates. From one country to another, specific factors could come into play in the choice of voters.
In Senegal, the election of all dangers
Only a few more weeks of waiting, and on February 25, the Senegalese will go to the polls to choose their future president. While waiting for January 20, the Senegalese Constitutional Court must publish a final list of candidates; it must be said that no less than 90 people are claiming the country’s highest office.
While within the presidential coalition, Benno Bokk Yakaar, the designation of Amadou Bâ seems to have closed the debate on the designation of an heir apparent to succeed the outgoing Macky Sall, this is not the case on the side of the opposition which, in addition to advancing in dispersed ranks, registers uncertainties about some of its tenors.
Speaking of uncertainties, the African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity (PASTEF), one of the main opposition forces, are attracting attention. The party was dissolved in July 2023, and its default candidate, Bassirou Diomaye, was imprisoned in the same way as the initial candidate, in the person of Ousmane Sonko, leader of the party. As a reminder, the latter was convicted in the context of a moral affair, a legal case with multiple twists and turns that caused numerous acts of violence in Senegal.
While a recent court decision also confirmed the conviction of Ousmane Sonko for defamation, his case was dismissed by the Constitutional Council, which deemed it incomplete. Is the risk of an election with a weakened PASTEF greater than ever, to the benefit of other opposition figures, such as Khalifa Sall, ex-mayor of Dakar? Nothing is less sure.
In Mauritania, little suspense for the re-election of Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani
On June 24, Mauritanians will go to the polls to elect their president. At least, to re-elect the current one, Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani, as many observers and analysts bet. Because half a year before the election, the die already seems to be cast and the man at the head of the country since August 2019 is the favorite.
Certainly, Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani will have scored points for his re-election by displaying, over the last few months, his desire to revolutionize many areas. We have seen this in particular in the field of infrastructure construction (multiple visits and inaugurations of construction sites); health (establishment of universal health coverage), the fight against poverty, and the reduction of inequalities (endowment of the Delegation for National solidarity and the fight against exclusion with a budget of 500 million dollars ), etc.
But what could also benefit the Union candidate for the republic is the absence of an adversary capable of compromising his ambitions. Apart from Biram Dah Abeid, who came second in the 2019 election, most of the major opposition figures have joined the ruling party. We must also take into account the absence in the race of ex-president Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz, tried and sentenced to five years in prison for illicit enrichment and money laundering as well as a sentence of ineligibility.
In South Africa, particularly difficult elections for Nelson Mandela’s ANC
In the 2024 general elections, scheduled between May and August, the challenge seems twofold for the ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC): win the polls and regain the level of support that the party had maintained from its beginnings, it about thirty years ago, until recent times. Because in recent years, Nelson Mandela’s party has been at its lowest in the polls.
From 62% of the vote in Mandela’s election in 1994, today, polls give the ANC just 50% of the estimates for the next consultations. Indeed, during the 2021 local elections, the ruling party obtained only 46% of the votes, thus opening the way to co-governance, made up of coalitions.
For many analysts, it is not surprising that the ANC is losing its former strength. In question, under the leadership of the party, the governance of the Rainbow Nation, in recent years, has been marked by corruption and many other scourges such as urban insecurity or unemployment. We particularly remember the corruption and money laundering scandal involving former President Jacob Zuma, who led the country from 2009 to 2018.
If the current head of state, Cyril Ramaphosa, obtains the confidence of South Africans for a second term as the head of the country, he will be expected to address these ills which contribute to putting the future of the ANC at stake.
The 2024 Algerian presidential election or the false Tebboune suspense
12 months before the presidential election, all eyes are on the current Algerian head of state. Will Abdelmadjid Tebboune run for another term? The question remains, especially since the man who came to the head of state in 2019 has not yet made his intentions known. Certainly, the Algerian president, 78 years old, promised upon his accession to power not to stay there forever. However, some analysts do not rule out the possibility that this position has evolved.
If the Algerian president opts for a second lease, he will take part in the race as a favorite. Because opposite, there is an opposition which occupies less center stage. This could be explained by a measure prohibiting protest movements under penalty of legal proceedings.
Whether President Tebboune runs for a second term or not, the Algerian presidential election will probably be one of the most scrutinized from the shores of the Mediterranean, particularly from France. Between Algiers and Paris, a diplomatic cold has set in and has persisted for several months, linked mainly to several historical factors relating to the colonial era. A freeze in relations between the two capitals explains the repeated postponement of the visit to Paris of the tenant of the El Mouradia palace.
In Tunisia, will a simple victory for Kaïs Saïed be enough?
Politically, 2024 is a marathon year for Tunisia, which will experience general elections: first local and regional ones then the presidential election scheduled for October. But it must be said that many eyes are on the vote, which will allow President Kaïs Saïed to stay in power for a second term or hand over the presidential chair to a successor.
A scenario in which the Tunisian president cedes power seems the least plausible. Because if, in 2014 then in 2019, the consultations were open, they are less likely for the next deadlines. The cause is an opposition that is almost absent as much as it is considered silenced by the one – the head of state – whom many accuse of concentrating all powers in his hands, especially since the country acquired a new constitution.
Kaïs Saïed or not at the head of Tunisia, the big challenges awaiting the next tenant of the Carthage palace are first and foremost economic. Shortages, high unemployment rate, lack of liquidity: the country has been experiencing financial difficulties for months.
The other big issue is diplomacy. This is evidenced by the negotiations, based on President Saïed’s reluctance, during 2023, between Tunis and European capitals to find a migration agreement, while Tunisia is perceived as a country of mass departure of migrants to Europe.
2024, a decisive year for Ghana?
Who to succeed Nana Akufo-Addo and finally get Ghana out of the economic impasse in which it has found itself since the COVID-19 pandemic? The question is urgent because almost all the lights are red. Over one year, the inflation rate has crossed the 40% mark and the country is in default of payments. This is also what prevailed in the negotiation and then the signing in December 2022 of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to obtain a loan of 3 billion dollars.
Three of the candidates in the running present themselves as the men for the job: Mahamudu Bawumia (60 years old), current vice-president and candidate of the ruling party (the NPP), John Dramani Mahama (65 years old), former President of the Republic, and Alan John Kyerematen (68), former Minister of Commerce who resigned from the government in January 2023, then from the ruling party.
On the evening of December 7, whichever of the three main candidates wins will undoubtedly have convinced Ghanaians the most about a project to revive the economy. But nothing seems a foregone conclusion between Mahamudu Bawumia who has the anointing and support of the outgoing president, John Dramani Mahama, who has the chance to no longer face his feared challenger, Akufo-Addo, and Alan John Kyerematen whose political weight could surprise.
