Evgeny Prigozhin spent almost a decade building the paramilitary group Wagner.
This group has become a central part of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, and Prigozhin’s troops have helped expand Russian influence around the world, supporting President Vladimir Putin’s allies in Africa and Syria.
News of his death sparked a wave of speculation about the band’s future.
Western security officials wonder who will take his place and what will happen to the mercenaries he once led.
Who will direct Wagner now?
Dr Joana de Deus Pereira, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), told the BBC’s World Tonight program that Prigojine’s death would likely lead to “some reorganization” of the group.
But she added that, overall, Wagner’s activities would likely continue the same as under Prigozhin’s leadership.
“The organization will persist in the future, probably under another name, but it has already proven that it has the ability to adapt and transform,” she said.
“We have to look at Wagner not as a single man, but as an ecosystem, as a hydra with many heads and very diverse interests in Africa.
Atlantic Council security analyst Ruslan Trad agrees. He told the BBC that Prigozhin’s death would likely lead to the installation of someone with links to Russia’s military intelligence service, the GRU, to lead the group in his place.
But he suggested the main challenge for President Putin could be finding someone with deep enough pockets to fund paramilitary operations, while not posing a direct challenge to his regime.
“They will try to find a new financier, because Prigozhin was the main person with money,” Mr Trad said.
“I think it will be more difficult to find a new financier because [Wagner] has good commanders, but money is important here. Maybe they will [install] someone from Putin’s inner circle” .
Benoît Bringer, a journalist whose documentary The Rise of Wagner charted the rise of the paramilitary group, told the BBC that one of the main candidates was GRU General Andrey Averyanov.
“It is likely that Putin needed time to secretly organize the transition. This would explain why he waited two months before getting rid of Prigozhin,” he added.
Emily Ferris of Rusi observed that Moscow “will probably have learned its lesson that figures like Prigozhin with their own dangerous ambitions are wildcards”, adding that “any new leader [of Wagner] would probably be someone hand-picked by the Kremlin”.
What will happen to Wagner’s troops in Belarus and Ukraine?
For most of last year, Wagner has been Russia’s most effective fighting force in Ukraine, with his troops successfully taking the eastern towns of Soledar and Bakhmut in the east of the country. from bloody battles.
But Ms Ferris said Prigozhin’s death was unlikely to have a serious impact on the course of the war.
“Wagner’s troops have not been in action in Ukraine since the rebellion, and their troops are either stationed in Belarus or absorbed into the Ministry of Defense, so the immediate impact on the war in Ukraine, where forces continue to contain the Ukrainian counter-offensive, should be minimal for now,” she said.
She added that it seemed unlikely that Wagner troops would return to the battlefield in Ukraine, at least in the short term.
Around 8,000 of Wagner’s troops are believed to be stationed in camps in Belarus, where they followed Prigozhin after his June mutiny failed.
Meanwhile, satellite images analyzed by BBC Verify show that several tents at Wagner’s main camp in Osipovichi, southeast of the Belarusian capital, Minsk, are being dismantled. Some have been completely or partially dismantled.
The photos were taken by US-based company Planet Labs. It is unclear exactly when work began and whether the occupants of the tents are housed elsewhere in Belarus or have left the country.
The US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty media group reported on Thursday that 101 of the camp’s 273 tents had already been dismantled.
Belarus, Russia’s key ally in the invasion of Ukraine, has so far made no public comment on the matter.
The future of Wagner’s fighters is unclear, however, with some social media reports suggesting several troops have made explicit threats against President Putin for what they claim was his role in Prigozhin’s death. .
Can Wagner’s troops in Africa and Syria keep fighting?
The future of Wagner’s troops abroad is equally uncertain. The group has become a key pillar of Russian foreign policy, with its forces helping to support governments in Syria, Mali, the Central African Republic and Libya in exchange for lucrative mining rights.
In recent days, Prigozhin has reportedly been present in West Africa, where Western analysts fear the group is seeking to extend its influence to other countries, including Niger where a coup has just taken place.
Some have speculated that the beheading of the group’s leadership could force Russia to reassess its attempts at influence in the region, but many experts believe that the group’s decentralized command on the continent should allow it to continue its operations. unhindered by Prigozhin’s death.
After the June mutiny, Russian officials reportedly traveled to Libya to meet Khalifa Haftar, the renegade general who is challenging the UN-recognized government in Tripoli, and assured him of the Wagner Group’s continued support regardless of fate of Prigozhin.
Mr Trad told the BBC he believed the Wagner Group was so integrated into the defense infrastructure of African countries that their operations would not be disrupted by Prigojine’s death.
“Commanders stationed in Syria, the Central African Republic or Mali already have very good role models and freedom to act,” he said.
“Local commanders are not affected because the operations are separate, they have different resources and they are even currently recruiting for operations in Syria and Africa.
He added that the group’s arm’s length relationship with Russian intelligence would remain a valuable tool for Moscow, allowing it to operate in the “grey area” where it could pursue Russia’s interests, while allowing officials to deny any involvement.
Mr Bringer told the BBC that Wagner was “essential in Africa” to promote Russian interests. “The structure will certainly continue to exist there, perhaps no longer under the Wagner name, but with a new leader loyal to the Kremlin,” he said.
Anton Mardasov, a nonresident fellow with the Middle East Institute’s Syria program, said that even after the failed Prigozhin uprising in Russia, Wagner commanders abroad largely evaded Kremlin retaliation to avoid “to weaken the overall position of Moscow”.
However, he said other mercenary companies were increasingly competing with Wagner’s role in Syria. After the June mutiny, Mr Mardasov said a number of Wagner soldiers were offered transfers to a competing company called PMC Redut.
“Redut has been working in Syria alongside Wagner for a long time,” Mr Mardasov told the BBC. “It’s on Redut that the military are betting in Syria, but they were afraid to go too fast.”
Will Wagner quickly fade from memory?
In the medium term, it therefore seems unlikely that Wagner’s activities will be significantly affected by the death of his benefactor. But in the longer term, Wagner’s activities should turn into something new, according to Emily Ferris de Rusi.
“Most likely is that Wagner will split in two, with the remaining leaderless groups in Belarus disbanded and the other faction active overseas transformed into something else that can be a tool of foreign policy. Russian,” she told the BBC.
As for Prigozhin’s legacy, Mr Bringer told the BBC that Wagner had “demonstrated to the Kremlin how a private shadow army, capable of operating illegally, could be useful in its hybrid wars, as well as to gain influence abroad”.
“Wagner’s name may disappear, but not the mercenaries on the pitch and the method he created.
