President Kais Saied has promised to move “from despair to hope” thanks to a new Constitution submitted to referendum, the adoption of which is hardly in doubt on Tuesday, and which strengthens his powers to the point of jeopardizing the any young Tunisian democracy.
The opposition National Salvation Front (FSN) coalition, which had called for a boycott of the poll, accused the Isie electoral authority on Tuesday of having “amplified” and “falsified” the figures on the attendance at the polls, announcing Monday evening the participation of nearly 28% of the electorate.
The first official results are expected Tuesday afternoon at the earliest, but the independent polling institute Sigma Conseil announced a vote of “92.3%” for the “yes”.
Tunisia, facing an economic crisis, aggravated by COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine on which it depends for its wheat imports, has been very divided since Mr. Saied, democratically elected in 2019, seized all the powers in July 25, 2021, arguing that the country is ungovernable.
Shortly after the first estimates, the National Salvation Front, which includes the Islamist-inspired movement Ennahdha, Mr. Saied’s pet peeve, estimated that “75% of Tunisians refused to give their approval to the putschist project launched there one year old by Kais Saied”.
Said Benarbia of the NGO International Commission of Jurists also criticized the legitimacy of a vote with such a low mobilization. “Any resulting Constitution does not reflect the vision of the majority of Tunisians and is deprived of democratic legitimacy and national ownership,” he told AFP.
For analyst Youssef Cherif, “most people voted for the man (Kais Saied) or against his opponents, not for his text”.
This is the case of Noureddine al-Rezgui, a bailiff who works in Tunis: “after 10 years of disappointment and total bankruptcy in the management of the state and the economy, the Tunisians want to get rid of the old system and take a new turning point.
For him, “the fact that the level of participation is not great, it’s normal and like in the rest of the world, for example in the last legislative elections in France”.
The expert Abdellatif Hannachi also relativized the low attendance, judging it “quite respectable given the holding of the ballot in summer, during the holidays and in the heat”.
Horns and flags
From the estimates of Sigma Conseil on national television, hundreds of supporters of the president descended to celebrate “his victory” on Bourguiba Avenue, in the center of Tunis.
At around 1 a.m. GMT (9 p.m. EDT), Kais Saied appeared in front of the cheering crowd. “Tunisia has entered a new phase,” he said, assuring that the Constitution would make it possible to move “from a situation of despair to a situation of hope”.
The voters were above all “the most aggrieved middle classes, adults who feel cheated economically, politically and socially”, analyzed for AFP by the director of Sigma Conseil, Hassen Zargouni.
The new Constitution grants broad prerogatives to the Head of State, breaking with the parliamentary system in place since 2014.
The president who cannot be dismissed designates the head of government and the ministers and can dismiss them as he pleases. He can submit to Parliament legislative texts which have “priority”. A second chamber will represent the regions, as a counterweight to the current Assembly of Representatives (deputies).
Sadok Belaïd, the lawyer commissioned by Mr. Saied to draw up a draft Constitution, disavowed the final text, believing that it could “open the way to a dictatorial regime”.
“All Powers”
President Saied, 64, considers this overhaul of the Constitution as an extension of the “course correction” initiated on July 25, 2021 when, citing political and economic blockages, he dismissed his Prime Minister and froze Parliament before dissolving in March.
Highlighting the takeover in recent months of the Superior Council of the Judiciary or Isie, human rights defenders and the opposition have denounced the absence of checks and balances in this text.
If spaces of freedom remain guaranteed, the question of a return to a dictatorship like that of Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, who was ousted in 2011 during a popular revolt, could arise “after Kais Saied”, has said Mr. Cherif to AFP.
For many experts, Mr. Saied’s political future will depend on his ability to revive an economy in a catastrophic situation with very high unemployment, plummeting purchasing power, and an increasing number of poor people.
