If we take into account the participation rates in the referendum on the new constitution recorded in polling stations abroad during the first day of voting, Friday, July 22, 2022, we can safely say that this consultation ultimately interests only its initiator, the President of the Republic Kaïs Saïed, and his supporters. (Illustration: the Isie press conference did not attract many journalists).
But first, let’s examine the figures in question presented during a press conference organized on Saturday, July 23, in Tunis, by the president of the Independent High Authority for Elections (Isie), Farouk Bouasker.
According to Bouasker, the percentage of participation in the referendum of the first day in the constituency of France 1 was, until 7 p.m. in the evening, 1.9% of registered voters, against 1.8% in that of France 2.
Turnout was even lower in Italy (1.2%), but somewhat higher in Germany (4.5%), Americas and Rest of Europe (3 .1%), the Arab world and the rest of the world (2.9%).
Non-event
Even if the participation rates will be higher on the third and last day of the vote of Tunisians residing abroad, as Bouasker made a point of specifying it to justify the low rates recorded on the first day, and even if we multiply these by three or four, that will not contradict the general impression that emerges from this “non-event” that is the referendum on a new constitution of which only Kais Saied and his supporters see the usefulness and the urgency.
By extrapolating from the first figures, we can count, in the best scenario, on a participation rate of 25% to 30%, and with a very high abstention rate, we would have good reasons to s question the very legitimacy of the final result of the consultation, especially since it relates to a new constitution supposed to apply to twelve million citizens, an overwhelming majority of whom would not have spoken about it.
Assuming that the voting operations will go off without a hitch, that the electoral commission, all of whose members owe their appointment to President Saied and to him alone, will carry out its mission according to the elementary rules of transparency, and respect for standards, and that the results announced will be in line with the reality of the popular vote expressed, which many opponents have good reason to doubt, what legal and political value should be attributed to the results of a referendum that was initially highly contested and in the end marked by a high rate of abstentionism?
Forced passage
Beyond the actual results, the whole problem will lie in the interpretation that will be made of them by the President of the Republic, the only one to decide on the outcome to be given to the vote and who, in any case, does not seem to be considering another scenario than that of the adoption without firing a shot of its draft constitution?
Moreover, there may be very (or few) many of us going to vote, but what credit can we give to the final results when a good part of the political class has called for a boycott and announced, in advance, that it does not recognize the legality and the legitimacy of the operation as a whole, because the said referendum was practically imposed by the Head of State outside of any plural and contradictory debate?
The absence of observers in the polling stations, which we can already foresee, due to the objective circumstances surrounding the whole operation, will hardly help matters and we can even expect negative reactions from international organisations, calling into question, on the basis of reports from local NGOs, the credibility of a political operation which, from the outset, was more a matter of force than a democratic debate.
All of this, one imagines, risks aggravating the divisions among Tunisians and darkening the image they project in international public opinion, that of a nation that is politically unstable, economically and socially blocked and grappling with despair. profound as reflected in the increase in the flow of illegal migrants throwing themselves into the sea to reach Europe.
