Rabat and Madrid have put an end to their diplomatic quarrel, thanks to a gesture of support demanded for a long time by Morocco on the sensitive issue of Western Sahara. A change in Spanish position testifies to a rebalancing of the balance of power between the two countries.
Any observer of Moroccan foreign policy will recognize an unprecedented development in Cherifian diplomacy in recent years. A new dynamism summarized by the formula of Nasser Bourita, Minister of Foreign Affairs: “Today’s Morocco is not that of yesteryear. »
The crisis with Spain, which ended on March 18 with Madrid’s recognition of the Moroccan autonomy plan for the Sahara, illustrates the new direction that the kingdom intends to give to its international relations, in a context where the South is strengthening its position on the world stage and is slowly but surely changing the rules of the game.
From words to deeds
The paradigm stemming from the Second World War that wants the countries of the North to organize the world order – the countries of the South being asked to respect it – has long remained anchored in the minds of the leaders of the former colonial states. Despite the accession to independence of a large number of countries, the former colonizer continued to exercise political and economic control there, a strategy known as neocolonialism or qualified, according to Kwame Nkrumah’s formula, of “the last stage of imperialism”.
A look back at the episodes of the recent crisis between Rabat and Madrid allows us to understand the extent to which this balance of power is in the process of being exceeded.
When in May 2021, Nasser Bourita affirms that the Morocco of today is not that of yesteryear, he sends a direct warning to Spain, which welcomed, a few days earlier, Brahim Ghali, the leader of the Polisario. Morocco then goes from words to deeds, recalling its ambassador from Madrid, reducing its security cooperation, and, for a certain period, interrupting its surveillance of the northern borders, thus causing a migration crisis in Ceuta.
THE KINGDOM HAS DEMONSTRATED THAT IT IS ALSO CAPABLE OF EXERCISING REALPOLITIK
Madrid reacted by accusing Rabat of “blackmail” and by claiming the support of the European Union. The Spanish Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, even declares that “the territorial integrity of Spain is not negotiable”, that it is “an aggression against the borders of Spain and the European Union” and that Morocco cannot “play this kind of game” with Spain.
An aggressive exit to which Nasser Bourita responds by recalling that “good neighborliness is not a one-way system”, and that Morocco “has no obligation to protect the borders” of Spain. The kingdom has thus demonstrated that it is as capable as its partners in the North of demonstrating realpolitik and of taking advantage, if necessary, of the balance of power leaning in its favor.
A power that matters
It is that Morocco acts more and more like a rational actor, choosing its diplomatic options according to precise objectives aligned with its national interest, in this case, the recognition by Spain of the Moroccan plan on the Sahara.
In fact, the kingdom is now a regional power that counts and it has become impossible to ignore rank. On the African scene, it has consolidated its position as a “gateway to Africa”, thanks to a clever mix of investments and active diplomacy.
Economically, it has established itself as one of the leading international investors in Africa, with foreign direct investment (FDI) valued at around $4 billion in 2020.
CASABLANCA HAS BECOME A HUB FOR BUSINESSES FROM EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA
In terms of connectivity with the continent, Morocco has weekly connections to more than 40 ports in West Africa. The kingdom’s air strategy has extended its connections to the continent at competitive fares, positioning Casablanca as a transit hub for businesses bound for Africa from Europe and North America.
Financial heart
Morocco’s top three banks, Attijariwafa Bank, Bank of Africa and Banque Centrale Populaire (BCP), have thousands of branches across the African continent, from Cairo to Brazzaville and Bamako to Dar es Salaam. In 2010, Morocco created Casablanca Finance City (CFC), a regional financial center, which should become the financial heart of Africa.
A POSITION OF “GATEWAY TO AFRICA” CONSOLIDATED THANKS TO ITS INVESTMENTS AND ITS ACTIVE DIPLOMACY
Outside Africa, Morocco adopted the same pragmatism by normalizing its relations with Israel within the framework of a tripartite agreement including the United States. Rabat has become an active member of several forums and initiatives: the Morocco-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) forum, the African Continental Free Trade Area (Zleca), the Turkey-Africa Forum, the India-Africa Forum, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
As a result, trade between Morocco and some southern states has grown: in 2021, Moroccan exports to Brazil broke a record at $1.9 billion, an increase of 95.5% compared to the previous year.
Geostrategic changes
To these ingredients, let us add Morocco’s growing capacity to adapt to geostrategic changes: the strengthening of South-South cooperation, the Chinese Silk Road project, the exit of Great Britain from the European Union, and the increased Russian involvement in Eastern Europe and parts of the Middle East. In doing so, the kingdom has reduced its dependence on certain states and has given itself the means to impose its point of view on the issue of its territorial integrity.
