On April 22, 2024, a summit was held in Tunis bringing together the heads of state of what can be called the Eastern Maghreb.
The ins and outs of this summit, which can be described as atypical, because it is the first of its kind since the independence of Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya, and was not planned in the presidents’ agendas, remain still unknown Because part from the joint press release published at the end of the meeting, little information has filtered out on its objectives. However, it will be a milestone and can be considered a turning point in the history of the Maghreb countries.
It is also clear that Algeria is behind the holding of this summit. Since it was the President of the Algerian Republic himself who had previously announced the event. By explaining the reasons that push towards the obligation to coordinate the policies and actions of our respective governments. With in particular the rise of dangers looming on the horizon in this region of the world and the importance of the challenges facing each country separately.
The Maghreb of peoples and the Maghreb of governments
Everyone remembers this slogan launched by the various Algerian governments since the time of the late Haouari Boumediène, as opposed to a hypothetical “Maghreb of governments” which never took place. The very creation of the UMA, the Arab Maghreb Union, had only worsened relations and aggravated disagreements between the Maghreb nations. The UMA was born dead at the first Zéralda meeting.
We must go back very far in the history of our countries, where in 1924, a “Maghreb liberation commission” was created in Cairo. At the time, the Destourian party was already born and led by the late Abdel Aziz Thaalbi, himself Tunisian but of Algerian origin and author of the famous work, “Tunisia Martyr” and who was already a famous personality in the Arab-Muslim world. That same year, the “Caliphate” of Istanbul was abolished by Kamel Atatürk. And a conference bringing together the national movements of North Africa was held.
An Arab Maghreb office was even established in Cairo to serve the cause of independence, resulting from a congress held between February 15 and 22, 1947 in the Egyptian capital, where the Moroccan nationalist leader, Mohammed, appeared. ibn Abdel Karim El Khattabi, hero of the Rif War against France. Habib Bourguiba was also a member of this office when he was in exile in Cairo.
But it was not until 1958, just after the independence of Tunisia and Morocco, Algeria still being under the yoke of French colonialism, that a meeting was held in Tangier between representatives of the main political movements of the Maghreb, Tunisia being represented by Neo-Destour.
It is therefore in the logic of the Tangier meeting that the first meeting between Maghrebi heads of state will be held later, on June 10, 1988, in Zéralda, Morocco, to constitute the Arab Maghreb Union. It will bring together Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Libya and Mauritania. Since the Maghreb à cinq was born. A treaty was signed on February 17, 1989, in Marrakech and a general secretariat was created which is still now headed by a representative of the Tunisian State, appointed by the President of the Republic, and approved by the four other heads of state. and its headquarters is in Rabat.
However, the UMA has been dead since its birth, mainly due to the conflict between Morocco and Algeria over Western Sahara. In this conflict between the two brother countries, Tunisia always maintained strict neutrality, until the day the representative of the Polisario front was received in Tunis by the President of the Tunisian Republic. Since then, nothing has gone right between Tunisia and Morocco and the UMA has become a distant memory.
For or against the Eastern Maghreb?
The holding of a tripartite meeting in Tunis, between the heads of state of Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya, divided the Tunisian political elites. Thus, one party considers that we cannot wait forever for the resurrection of a five-member Maghreb to move forward on the path to Maghreb unity. So we can already try it at Three. In this sense, a study by the World Bank in 2019 proves that the GDP of Maghreb countries would increase significantly, in the event of the creation of a large Maghreb market of more than 100 million consumers. Moreover, experts go so far as to talk about the cost of the NON Maghreb. Tunisia, whose economy is based on exports, is one of the biggest losers.
Why not then try to move forward with our neighbors with whom we have common land and maritime borders? This logic has its extensions in the history of Tunisia. The history researcher Habib Azizi, modernist and specialist of the 17th-19th centuries, speaks of the Ottoman Maghreb which was a political, geographical, and economic reality and which corresponded to what we call the Eastern (and non-Arab) Maghreb which was until the First World War under the domination of the Sublime Porte. Why not base ourselves on this essential fact to move forward on the path to progressive unification? Moreover, this historian considers that the Western Maghreb (Morocco Mauritania) has always turned towards the Atlantic.
The other thesis considers that the current attempt to create a three-way Maghreb, apart from dividing the Maghreb and putting the last bullet in the head of the UMA, is only an Algerian maneuver to isolate Morocco more. While requiring the two other countries to align with Algiers’ foreign policy. The proponents of this idea affirm that it will be without follow-up; and this, despite the declaration resulting from the Tunis meeting and the assurances that the initiative remains open to other countries.
What confirms the doubts about Algiers’ intentions is the fact that the Libyan Presidency, just after the meeting in Tunis, hastened to send two special envoys to Rabat and Nouakchott to reassure the leaders of the two countries on ““Libya’s attachment to the AMU”. Especially since the government in Tripoli is deeply divided on the issue. The division is particularly blatant between the President of the Presidential Council and the Head of Government. So much so that the Libyan Ministry of Foreign Affairs was absent from the Tunis talks.
This chaotic start to this attempt to unify the Eastern Maghreb does not bode well. And everything happens as if Algiers wanted to impose this approach on its own. Because in Tunisia too, part of public opinion remains extremely skeptical about the success of this initiative.
The danger comes from the South
Algiers’ eagerness to conclude this initiative is also explained by the security challenges facing the country. Knowing that it has borders with Libya which is currently experiencing an increase in the military presence of the Russians, as well as the Americans. Everything suggests that the confrontation taking place in Ukraine between the two powers and in the heart of Europe risks moving to the heart of Africa and in particular in Libya.
Moreover, the strengthening of the American presence via a Libyan military airport, 30 km from our borders, certainly worries Algiers. The Algerian power still has the impression of being a besieged fortress and is directly involved in the Libyan conflict to stop the evolution of General Haftar’s troops, supported by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia. He would have succeeded in surrounding Tripoli, had it not been for Turkish military intervention to prevent him from occupying the capital. What Algiers considers to be an advance of Egyptian influence threatens its borders.
But the risk of destabilization of the sub-Saharan region is all the greater since France and the USA have withdrawn their troops from Niger and closed their military bases. Which augurs a reversal of strategic balances in the region. Libya then once again becomes a key issue for the Western military presence.
In his speech, during the induction of the new head of AFRICOM, the American Secretary of State for Defense predicted, two years ago, that our region, including Tunisia, would be the center of clashes between the USA and their allies, on the one hand; Russia and China on the other hand. His “prophecy” unfortunately seems to be coming true. We therefore understand the Algerian initiative. Especially since a new problem has been added, sub-Saharan immigration which is sweeping across our three countries and which constitutes a serious security threat.
So many dangers coming from the south require extreme vigilance on our southern borders and must challenge us to find adequate solutions. On this level, coordination with Algiers and Tripoli is more than necessary, far from any political politics. In this sense, the Tunis meeting of the three Presidents can only be beneficial. Except that Tunisian diplomacy must work to “thaw” relations with Morocco. The interest of this country is also to act in this direction.
It is also clear that coordination with our northern neighbor, Italy, is more than necessary. After the lightning visit of Georgina Meloni and the signing of agreements which can only strengthen our capacities to protect our southern borders.
Beyond ideological and political considerations, we can only move forward on the path to a Greater Maghreb, which remains a dream for generations of Maghrebs and also an opportunity for our respective economies. Everything unites us and few things separate us. Because there is no survival without belonging to the large groups, North African, Mediterranean, Arab, and African.
