The self-proclaimed American intelligence website, “Jafaj.net”, published a note about Tunisia that has been agitating the web for the past 24 hours. Alleged diplomatic sources and supposed insiders of the Tunisian army describe a scenario prepared by the army to dismiss Kais Saïed when the time comes. Decryption and demystification.
Written in 15 points, in a telegraphic style, the note titled ” In Tunisia, a soft class act military coup is cooking ” (” In Tunisia, a soft and made-up coup is in preparation “), literally “simmered”, takes the form of the characteristic condensation of intelligence reports. However, the entity behind “Jafaj” remains shrouded in mystery.
Jafaj, an intelligence site with a vague identity
With a relatively recent genesis, the first dated publication of the site dates back to the summer of 2020. It presents itself in rather flattering superlative terms , since it prides itself on being a US firm offering ” unparalleled ” content relating to the intelligence around the Middle East and North Africa. A status that the site claims to owe to an “ unprecedented ” network of experts.
Verification made, the domain name has been acquired by an American company and the server hosting the site is indeed based in the United States. But the sound of the “J” name leads many Internet users to conclude that the site displays its Israeli or Jewish identity in a half-word, like other sites of the same type.
This is the first time the site has tackled the Tunisian situation. Some of his publications about Morocco in particular have been partly “debunked” by our colleagues, singled out for some approximations, even implausibilities. However, the content offered to us here deserves attention, because not everything is without interest.
“Stating the obvious”, or some open secrets
“Intelligence sources in Tunisia have confirmed that the national army is considering a change of regime in which the current president, Kais Saied, would leave power “, postulates the site, which develops:
A Western source stationed in the Tunisian capital told JaFaJ that “the Tunisian army has already planned everything, it’s a matter of when, not if, and Saied already knows that he would have told the army that he was ready to step down as soon as they asked him to do so”. »
However, the projects undertaken by President Kais Saïed on the contrary suggest a long-term project. From the popular consultation to the project for a new Republic, through the ongoing rewriting of the Constitution and the fight against corruption that Saïed calls “purification”, nothing suggests an imminent departure but rather a “civilizational” project.
Nevertheless, that President Saïed was helped by the Tunisian army in his coup of last July 25 is public knowledge. The announcement of the freezing of Parliament (with the help of a military tank later replaced by a police armored vehicle) was made by a Head of State surrounded by generals of the army and the safety. Since then, prosecutions of civilians and deputies before military tribunals have multiplied.
Islamists VS soldiers, the eternal Arab destiny
On the other hand, the site is more precise when it evokes the chronology of President Saïed’s orbit, followed by the exasperation of certain senior officials in the face of what they describe as dictatorial “fads”:
“Since taking office, Kais Saied has been hampered by the strong presence of the Tunisian Muslim Brotherhood in the country, as well as the struggle of different factions within the Tunisian establishment itself. Therefore, Saied initially saw the military as the only reliable and predictable partner. This made him very accommodating to army generals. The mockery of his opponents is recurrent. Some say he is the “puppet” of the army.
On August 5, 2021, ten days after the events of July 25, our colleagues from Le Monde published an article entitled “In Tunisia, President Saïed treats his soldiers”. Lilia Blaise had detailed there the advantages granted to the armies since the election of Kais Saïed and the presumed return of the elevator which resulted from it. An article that had earned its author and the media a campaign of demonization and threats by certain radical supporters of July 25.
Jafaj’s document goes on to postulate ” Kais Saied’s one-sided love affair with the military “, explaining that ” even if the main generals of the army are not convinced of Saied’s skills, they use him to do the job. Saied suspended the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated parliament, lifting members’ parliamentary immunity and ordering the military to shut down the parliament building. Saied’s actions included relieving the Prime Minister of his duties, assuming executive power, suspending Parliament, closing two offices of foreign news agencies. This allowed Saied to rule by decree. A media war is underway and has been won by the Tunisian Muslim Brotherhood. Politically, they are known as the Ennahda Party. As they try to burn Saied at the stake, they don’t even try to reference or attack the military,” Jafaj notes.
Thesis and antithesis
Further, the same source moderates: “A Tunisian secret service agent in Europe spoke to JaFaJ and explained that “there will be no coup because the army will not overthrow Kais Saied. They simply help him save the country from radicals including the Muslim Brotherhood. Once the country is stabilized, Saied can choose to stand down and allow elections to be held without radicals, or he can simply choose to run again” and we “will help him but never overthrow him”.
“Another Tunisian intelligence executive disagreed, retorting that ‘Yes, there won’t be a coup per se, but there is already an agreement between Saied and the army, and this agreement stipulates that he will remain in power and step down after the country’s political system has been cleansed of radicals and Islamists”. The source added, “Furthermore, the man has proven to be a burden on the military and the country,” and went on to say that, “he says stupid things and comes across as naive and inexperienced.” It has created a vacuum and therefore Qatar, Egypt and Algeria all want a piece of Tunisia. These are the same countries that have turned Libya into an irrecoverable mess”, nuance Jafaj who concludes by quoting an alleged close friend of Carthage:
“Saied is an academic turned president, and is considered by many to be an ‘apprentice leader’. He seems to be aware of where the real power in Tunisia lies: in the hands of the army and the security apparatus. While fully responding to the army’s grievances and pushing through a policy of repression against the Islamists, Saied seems resigned to the fact that sooner or later he will cede government power to the army. As a result, he is anxious to leave a “legacy of a nature similar to that of the American George Washington”. Whatever happens, two things seem very likely: first, the Muslim Brotherhood will never again be able to control Tunisia, as they have, in the foreseeable future. Second, Saied’s tenure is limited.
Traditionally non-interventionist, having exercised an arbitral but not decisive role during the 2011 revolution, “Great mute” in Tunisia more than Egypt or Algeria, the army was designed from its post-independence foundation by Bourguiba to remain reduced in size, at least if we compare it to the country’s imposing security apparatus.
This is an aspect neglected by the editors of Jafaj, even if the army remains a major component of the deep state at work in Tunisia. However, the site has the merit of refocusing the debate on the fact that Tunisia does not ultimately escape the secular conflict which remains in force in the Arab world between nationalism and Islamism. From there to predicting a “putsch within a putsch” or the laissez-faire of an imminent coup d’etat, this source is probably going to work quickly: it would be underestimating the ambitions of the new power in Tunisia, a power that prevails to have operated the junction with “the people from below”. History shows that this type of populist alchemy is extremely difficult to undo, if not unbreakable.
