“In 2002, our trade deficit reached 38.7 billion dinars, or nearly 12 billion dollars, according to the National Institute of Statistics. While we often speak of a trade surplus with the European Union, based on fictitious operations that do not generate wealth. We cannot remedy a catastrophic situation by starting from false indicators. With a trade deficit of 12 billion dollars in 2022 and 18 billion dollars for the first 6 months of 2023, the appropriate term is “hemorrhage” which is worsening our indebtedness, alarmed economist Jamel Aouididi.
A new head of government has just been installed in La Kasbah. He took office at a time when the country was suffering from multifaceted bankruptcies: high unemployment, poverty, galloping inflation, external debt going crescendo. Added to this is an unstable and very delicate international context. What action plan to save a ship that has been capsizing for a decade? And what reforms are needed to restore growth?
Contacted by La Presse, the economist Jamel Aouididi shows one of the possible ways. In the opinion of the analyst, a growth rate that has hovered around 0.8% to 1% since 2011 does not offer enough leeway to achieve much, whether to reduce unemployment, reduce indebtedness or improve the purchasing power of Tunisians.
To restart the machine, we must focus on vital sectors such as agriculture. “Agricultural production needs to be revived. The sector is facing various difficulties that are hampering its development. Moreover, loans granted to the sector are around 2.9%, according to the annual report of the Central Bank, including the import of agricultural machinery and seeds. This sector, which contributes 8% of GDP, is therefore essential and deserves the full attention of our governments. In this perspective, the academic warns against the disintegration of the industrial fabric essential for the creation of wealth.
“Who says industrial fabric says local professionals, that is to say those who pay taxes and who contribute significantly to our foreign currency reserves through exports. Knowing that offshore companies are not required to repatriate export earnings .
Break with dummy indicators
Referring to the sixth edition of the balance of world countries published by the International Monetary Fund, the latter stipulates that custom work operations, consisting in entrusting goods to non-residents to be transformed and then either re-imported or re-exported to a third country, are now classified under services (manufacturing services provided by physical inputs held by third parties) and no longer under goods. This calls for a review of the modus operandi of the regime applied to off-shore companies.
“In 2002, our trade deficit reached 38.7 billion dinars, or nearly 12 billion dollars, according to the National Institute of Statistics. While we often speak of a trade surplus with the European Union, based on fictitious operations that do not generate wealth. We cannot remedy a catastrophic situation by starting from false indicators. With a trade deficit of 12 billion dollars in 2022 and 18 billion dollars for the first 6 months of 2023, the appropriate term is “hemorrhage” which is worsening our debt, our interlocutor is alarmed .
Given this state of affairs, the economist calls for a review of the role of the Central Bank, drawing inspiration from the Moroccan experience. “In Morocco, when they reached an agreement with the European Union in 2016, they demanded that the dirham always remain linked to the euro and the American dollar. This is how they were able to save their economy. In other words, when the local currency deteriorates, the external debt becomes more expensive. And the same equation applies to foreign trade,” explains the economist.
For more Maghreb solidarity
As for the reforms to be carried out in the medium term, the academic calls for a real revival of industrial small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
“China and Turkey are increasingly present in Tunisia. But the European Union remains our first investment partner. The Agency for the Promotion of Industry and Innovation (Apii) is called upon to play a decisive role, by carrying out a diagnosis of the SMEs that can be saved with substantial funding, in order to relaunch the production and the creation of wealth” , insists the academic again.
Evoking, moreover, a fluctuating and very delicate international context, marked by increasingly exacerbated cleavages; the United States and the European Union weakened, a rise in power of China and a Russia which is bogged down in the Ukrainian quagmire.
The economist pleads for a supply of hydrocarbons from Maghreb neighbours, in particular Algeria and Libya, in order to avoid the erosion of currencies.
It also calls for consolidating commercial ties with Russia, one of the main grain-producing countries, and for carrying out transactions in roubles, in order to minimize the damage caused by the depreciation of the local currency.
