The Tunisian authorities promise “total transparency” vis-à-vis the IMF about the state of progress of the economic reforms envisaged. However, it remains to be hoped that they will have the same concern for transparency with the Tunisians, who will have to bear the consequences of the austerity measures to be taken within the framework of the agreement with the international financial body.
Tunisia has no other choice but to implement the economic reform plan that the government has presented to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), otherwise the future of its children will be mortgaged,” said the Minister of Economy and Planning, Samir Saied.
While appreciating this firm determination of a member of the government who had been part of the Tunisian delegation that negotiated the agreement in question, we can still wonder why this reform plan, of which we only know the main lines, is taking its time has it been presented, in its smallest details, to public opinion, because it is 12.5 million Tunisians who are supposed to help in its implementation and, above all, to suffer the repercussions that the are often described as “painful” .
Whose commitments?
These reforms concern, as we know, the reduction of the wage bill in the civil service, the gradual lifting of subsidies for basic necessities and the restructuring and/or transfer (partial or total) of certain public companies operating in the sectors competitive. But they are nothing new since the Tunisian government had already committed to implementing them, under previous loan agreements with the IMF, but had failed to do so for various reasons, including the lack of lack of political will, weak political leadership and strong resistance from trade unions on the one hand and interest lobbies on the other.
This, Minister Saïed acknowledged, declaring during a seminar organized by the Confederation of Citizen Enterprises of Tunisia (Conect) on “the internationalization of small and medium-sized Tunisian enterprises” , Tuesday, November 1 , 2022, in Tunis ” We have presented a detailed plan because we have lost our credibility with the fund over the past few years” , adding, with determination: “This time, we are committed to executing it” .
It remains to be asked, however, what could, this time, guarantee this “execution” , when all the reasons that have so far prevented the implementation of the said reforms are still there and the government in place does not seem more competent, better equipped, more legitimate or even more determined than those who preceded him to respect his commitments. What guarantees that he will not give in to the obstacles which will inevitably appear in his path over the weeks and whose harbingers we are beginning to observe (general strikes, paralysis of entire sectors of the economy, political deadlocks…)?
A need for consistency
Admittedly, this time, the IMF took precautions and created a means of pressure on the Tunisian government. The loan agreed with the international financial body, for an amount of 1.9 billion dollars and for a period of 48 months, will indeed be granted in several tranches, the release of which will depend on the degree of progress of the said reforms. .We imagine that surveillance will be stricter and firmer than in the past and that the government’s margin for dithering will be much reduced. Which, moreover, makes the minister say that “the release of funds in installments will guarantee the implementation of the reforms” and that the government will show “total transparency” with its creditors.
With these words, one can also imagine the grievances expressed by the IMF experts on the poor governance of the previous agreements by the Tunisian officials and the firm commitments made by the latter to obtain the new loan agreement.
It remains to be hoped, however, that the authorities will also demonstrate “full transparency”with the Tunisians, who will have to bear the consequences of the austerity measures to be taken within the framework of this agreement. Because it is on the commitment of the Tunisians – and not of the governments which follow one another and resemble each other – that will ultimately depend on the success of the reforms envisaged. And this collective commitment cannot be obtained without adequate communication on the part of the authorities, starting with the President of the Republic Kaïs Saïed, who must stop holding divisive speeches, dividing citizens and opposing them to each other. . He must also clearly express his approval of the reforms and the unpopular measures that they will require, and not continue to lull the Tunisians with illusions as he has accustomed us until now, while leaving the members of the government to scramble to make accept austerity policies of which one knows that they have his approval, even if he often pretends to dissociate himself from them. By its very inconsistency, such a policy, which has already done a great deal of harm to the country, would certainly lead to the failure of the reforms envisaged and would, in the long run, cause such political misunderstanding and such an outcry in public opinion, that the regime would risk leaving feathers there.
