The decline in olive production in Tunisia during the 2022/23 season is estimated at 15%. This decline, responsible for the sharp rise in olive oil prices on the domestic market, is due to the effects of climate change, in particular the drop in rainfall and drought.
The 2022 olive harvest in Tunisia was up 67% in 2022, while it only increased by 60% in 2021. But production was expected to drop to 900,000 tonnes in the 2022/23 season, giving thus 180,000 tons of oil, whereas, in the previous season, the production of 1.2 million tons of olives provided 240,000 tons of oil. Hence a drop of 15%, compared to the national average output of 211,000 tonnes over the last decade.
In terms of the distribution of national olive oil production, the central-western regions provide 42% (75,800 tons), followed by the northern governorates at 25% (45,800 tons), and those in the south at 14% (25,000).
As for the oil mills in operation at the end of 2022, there were 809 of them, including 224 in the Sahel region, 209 in the center, 186 in the north, 103 in the south, and 87 in Sfax.
The main reason for the 15% drop mentioned above is that the country has gone through (and is still going through), during the 2022/23 season, strong climatic disturbances which have meant that the olive oil reservoirs do not were only 33% full. Worse, in some central regions, they were at 21%.
Indeed, the lack of rainfall observed mainly in the center and south of the country where approximately 75% of the olive groves are concentrated, as well as the intense heat waves that affected the whole country have largely contributed to this drop. As well as the poor olive harvest later than usual (October-November), due to the drought.
This drop in the harvest also caused an oil price escalation. Tunisia, which exports large volumes to Europe, forecasts a fall of 2.5%. Hence the very high prices. The average price of olive oil during the first 3 months of the 2021/2022 campaign increased by 40% compared to the same period of the previous campaign, with a variation of 21% to 56% (Onagri).
If they are affected by the drop in supply, prices are also influenced by the general tension on other vegetable oils.
Locally, olive oil is stretched by some companies, with other cheaper vegetable oil. The positive counterpart of high prices lies in the promise of minimizing the loss of income for farmers linked to the drop in olive harvests.
