Tunisia: A “Pre-War” Atmosphere

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If he concentrates his attacks today on the weak link in power, namely the Najla Bouden government, a very convenient punching bag which, from a shield for the President of the Republic, could turn, at the appropriate time, into a fuse easy to blow up, Noureddine Taboubi knows that, sooner or later, he will have to cross swords with Kaïs Saïed who holds all the power in Tunisia in his hands.

The Secretary General of the Tunisian General Labor Union (UGTT), Noureddine Taboubi, called on the head of government Najla Bouden to make efforts to reach an agreement that takes into account the country’s interest and social well-being. .

The UGTT, it should be remembered, did not reach an agreement during the negotiation sessions held with the government on salary increases for 2021, 2022 and 2023 and on the pending agreements. But he does not seem to have resigned himself to accept what amounts to a niet or a snub from a government that appears to be the weakest he has ever had to face.

In a statement made to the media on the sidelines of a training session, organized on Saturday, September 3, 2022, in Monastir for administrative and financial departments, youth and women, and associations affiliated with the UGTT, Mr. Taboubi underlined that the decisions will be taken in consultation with the trade union structures… if no agreement is reached with the government.

Taboubi and the UGTT procrastinate

The threat of a new general strike in the public service and sector is clear and the government has heard it, but given the difficult situation in the country, due to the suffocating socio-economic crisis (economy in breakdown, budget deficit approaching 10%, galloping inflation, rising prices, shortages of basic necessities, etc.), can we seriously expect an escalation on the social front, as the country prepares for major events political: the promulgation of a new electoral law, early legislative elections, the establishment of the constitutional court…?

The question has already been asked on the eve of a particularly tense administrative re-entry. And at first sight, all the conditions seem met not only for an escalation but for (outright) a social explosion, of which the president of the republic Kaïs Saïed, who continues to prance at the top of the popularity polls, does not seem to worry unduly.

For the tenant of the palace of Carthage, who tends to listen only to the echo of his own voice echoed endlessly by his supporters, things are clear beyond doubt: everything is for the best. in the best of all possible worlds, and it is not a few interest groups, barons of smuggling, speculation, and trafficking of all kinds who, by provoking shortages, price rises, and social protests, are going cast doubt on the correctness of the “rectifying process” that he is carrying out with an obstinacy that does not allow for any challenge.

Waiting for an announced confrontation

The problem is that thanks to the exceptional measures he proclaimed on July 25, 2021, Mr. Saïed has monopolized all the powers (legislative, executive, and judicial) and does not seem to be making good use of them, since at With the exception of a few stillborn pieces of legislation, he has not really taken any concrete measures to help pull the country out of the crisis, revive a stalled economy and calm the growing social discontent, especially among the lower strata. most disadvantaged, those on whose behalf he often speaks and who are still awaiting the fulfillment of his promises.

It is on this misunderstanding, based on an overestimation of Mr. Saïed’s ability to clean up and reform a country plagued by corruption, that the crises that the country is going through have come to be grafted on, and which are political, economic and social, feeding on each other, crises which are moreover aggravated by the beginning of international isolation, following the diplomatic blunders committed by President Saïed, whose knowledge of the mysteries of international relations seems very summary and above all distorted by his nationalism Arab of another age and its “revolutionary” tendencies .

Still happy that the UGTT, after having fought for a long time against the presidency of the republic, seems to have settled down for reasons which remain to be explained, otherwise the confrontation would have been inevitable and it would have plunged the country into disorder and anarchy. . This danger is not entirely eliminated, however, and the fire is still smoldering under the ashes.

If he concentrates his attacks today on the weak link in power, namely the Najla Bouden government, a very convenient punching bag which, from a shield for the president, could be transformed, at the appropriate time, into an easy fuse jump, the general secretary of the trade union center knows that, sooner or later, he will have to cross swords with the one who has all the power in the country. He also knows that this confrontation could be painful, not only for Kaïs Saïed, the government, and the country, but also and more particularly for the UGTT. Especially since, in the past, the trade union center has always had trouble recovering from the battering of the palace of Carthage, which has the deterrent force of the police, the army and justice.

It is this sequence made up of uncertainty, concern and restraint that we are witnessing today, without any glimmer on the horizon. The crisis in which Tunisia has settled therefore seems set to continue.