The Arab Spring happened ten years ago in Tunisia. A street vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, set himself on fire on December 17, 2010, in Sidi Bouzid, in despair. His death sparked a popular uprising first in Tunisia, then in most Arab countries. The first effect of this revolt was the fall of Ben Ali and a political effervescence which has hardly ceased since. Tunisia is undoubtedly the only “Arab” country where the political revolution has been followed by democratic effects.
However, a certain nostalgia for the old regime is heard, on the one hand, because of an economic situation which does not stop worsening, on the other hand, because of the growing rejection of the main political force. Tunisian, the Islamist Ennahda party. Initially, this Islamist party had profited from the collapse of the authoritarian regime. If he did not succeed in taking power, he prevented Tunisia from evolving into a modern society.
The economic impasse
Since the Tunisian Arab Spring, the average income has fallen and unemployment has never fallen below 15%. Emigration represents the hope of half of the Tunisian youth, in particular of the most qualified who cannot find work to the extent of their capacities.
If Tunisia was already in an economic crisis before the Coronavirus, it made the situation worse. Emigration has been stopped. The government decided to contain the country from March to May. Tourism, which was beginning to regain color, collapsed. The economy is expected to contract by 6.5% and the budget deficit to plunge to 7% of GDP.
Nothing allows Tunisians to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the outbreak of the revolution, and nothing is planned for that.
President Saïed would like new elections in 2020
Yet democracy works. Ennhada, who won the first elections and who placed its historic leader Rachid Ghanouchi as President of Parliament, was unable to take control of the country. Today President Kaïs Saïed, elected triumphantly on a speech of austerity, morality and justice, has established a government of technocrats without a real majority in the Assembly, but without Ennadha seeking to overthrow him, fearing only new elections do not diminish its influence.
Democracy works, with regular elections, and has avoided civil war and repression. This is a rare enough case to be underlined. However, Tunisia’s economic situation remains desperate. This is why no one cites Tunisia as an example.
Le Drian’s visit
France follows what is happening there closely. Jean Yves Le Drian went to Tunis on October 22. On this occasion, an AFD loan of 350 million euros was confirmed. It follows the commitment of Emmanuel Macron during the reception in Paris of the Tunisian President. 100 M will be available from this year, the rest staggered according to needs and reforms were undertaken until 2022. Another loan of 38 M has been signed to finance the water supply of greater Tunis.
Jean Yves Le Drian also released emergency medical aid of € 500,000 to help Tunisia cope with the Coronavirus epidemic. France would also be prepared to finance a hospital in Gafsa.
Discussions with President Saïed obviously focused on the fight against terrorism, on the next meeting of the inter-Libyan dialogue at the beginning of November in Tunis, and finally on the next summit of the Francophonie which will take place in Djerba in November. 2021.
The support of France and the Europeans is strategic, not only for terrorism, immigration or Libya but for the success of democracy in Tunisia. Spring is always expected there. If democracy succeeds in taking hold – already ten years ago – and the economy picks up, then Tunisia will be an example for Africa and the Middle East. This is why France is bringing with it the World Bank, the IMF, German and European cooperation. It is as important an issue as European aid was to the former Eastern countries which became democracies after the implosion of the Soviet bloc. A democratic and flourishing Tunisia would be a game-changer in the Mediterranean.
