Iran, Syria, and probably soon Yemen. The Saudi Arabia of Mohamed Ben Salmane, known as MBS, is multiplying at all costs reconciliations with the countries of the region with which the monarchy had been at odds for many years.
This new orientation is totally unexpected and seems to have been made behind the backs of Riyadh’s traditional allies. Where some see yet another expression of the impetuous and unpredictable character of MBS, others, on the co
At the beginning of April, Riyadh and Tehran surprised the whole world, the Americans in the lead, by announcing the conclusion, in Beijing under the aegis of China, of an agreement for the restoration of their diplomatic relations broken since 2016 and the reopening of their respective embassies. It’s not yet a return to a friendly relationship, but MBS is sweeping away nearly 45 years of enmity with the Islamic Republic.
With regard to Syria, after 12 years of intransigence, Saudi Arabia has finally given its approval for the return of Bashar Al Assad’s country to the Arab League. The decision was taken on Sunday, May 7 in Cairo.
This change in attitude is also striking in its unforeseen nature, knowing that a few months ago, at the Algiers summit last November, Syria was not represented because of the opposition of Riyadh and other monarchies in the region.
Before reconciling with Iran and Syria, Saudi Arabia had done so with Qatar, a country that was embargoed in 2017 by ten Saudi-led states.
There remains the quagmire of Yemen in which the monarchy has been entangled since 2015, at the head of a coalition also of a dozen countries. Here too, the beginnings of a change, of course, are beginning to appear. Last April, Saudi Arabia sent envoys to Yemen to negotiate with the Houthi rebels.
Because of their simultaneity, these reconciliations cannot be linked to the evolution of each of the conflicts. Rather, observers see it as a thoughtful and purposeful new direction for MBS.
Iran, Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen are part of the same geopolitical axis, that of Tehran. It is Iran that supports directly or through the Lebanese Hezbollah militias, President Bashar Al Assad, and the Yemeni rebels.
The new direction, therefore, proceeds from a global undertaking by the Saudis to make peace around them. They are even credited with inclinations to get closer to Israel and to try to bring this country to make peace with the Palestinians.
Saudi Arabia: MBS wants to achieve economic diversification
Many of course wonder why Saudi Arabia and its Crown Prince Mohamed Ben Salmane suddenly discovered the virtues of peaceful relations with his entourage.
Part of the answer can be found in the context of the cold with the American protector, following the affair of the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the departure of Donald Trump from the White House. His successor Joe Biden promised the end of impunity to Saudi Arabia, which immediately began to initiate decisions within OPEC that were not always in line with American interests.
Donald Trump, with his outspokenness, publicly confirmed what everyone knew about the background of the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia.
To protect yourself, you will have to pay, said the former American president in the Saudi capital, to which he devoted his first visit abroad in 2017 and from which he left with contracts of 400 million dollars for the companies in his country.
Since “protection” can only be done against the Iranian enemy and its axis, the simplest way to overcome this form of blackmail is to establish a lasting peace with this enemy, which is a source of danger. And when Saudi Arabia was attacked by the Hausa rebels, the Americans did little to protect it.
In addition to Saudi Arabia’s willingness to distance itself from the United States and deploy other umbrellas to ensure its security, there is also MBS’s overreaching ambition to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy. , too dependent on oil.
Many observers link MBS’s desire to ease tensions in the region to his ambitious project to modernize and develop the kingdom’s economy.
In 2018, MBS said that if Saudi Arabia succeeds in its economic transformation plan, other countries will follow and the Middle East will become the “new Europe”.
The “Vision 2030” project, initiated by the crown prince, provides for colossal investments to free the kingdom from its dependence on hydrocarbons, a little on the model of the Emirati neighbor, but on a larger scale.
The plan provides for the development of all sectors, particularly those of services and new technologies, with in particular the construction of a futuristic megalopolis called Neom.
As impetuous and unpredictable as he is, Mohamed Bin Salman is wise enough to understand that the capital necessary for such a major undertaking will never flow in an environment of instability, tension, and vulnerability to missiles, Iranian or otherwise.
Europe and all the developed areas of the planet were only able to move forward after turning the page on conflicts. Speaking of “new Europe”, MBS may have subtly announced the coming peace with Iran and the others.
“MBS knows very well that with hotbeds of tension around his country, his Vision 2030 project has no chance of succeeding, that’s why he decided to make peace with his neighbors”, explains a connoisseur of the Gulf region.
