Is external demand replacing domestic demand as the main driver of growth?
Despite a context of high inflation, restrictive monetary policy and more restrictive credit conditions, the indicators of the Moroccan economy, particularly that of growth, are green. Indeed, according to macroeconomic statistics published by the High Commission for Planning (HCP), the national economy recorded, during this first quarter of 2023, a growth rate of 3.5% against 0.5% in the same period. from last year. Contrary to previous decades, it was foreign trade in goods and services, and not the components of domestic demand, which saved growth, since they recorded strong increases (19.8% instead of 9, 8% the previous year) contributing no less than 3.6 points to this growth. Imports are not left out,
Domestic demand
This positive trend in the contribution of exports to growth contrasts this year with the quasi-stability of the components of domestic demand. Starting with household final consumption expenditure, which only increased by 0.1%. On the investment side, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) remained on its downward trend a year earlier, falling by 2.6% in the first quarter of 2023. Thus contributing negatively to growth (minus 0.6% ). The figures published by the HCP do not tell us any more about this increase in exports, particularly on the part of exporting companies. This could shed light on whether the number of exporting companies has also increased.
This is not entirely surprising since according to the 2020-2021 edition of the annual report of the Moroccan Observatory of VSMEs reveals to us that the national productive fabric remains highly fragmented and, above all, made up of 88% of micro-enterprises which have a turnover of less than 3 million dirhams and 79% have a turnover of less than one million dirhams. The VSE dominance is in no way, except exceptionally, in favor of a strong export drive. It suffices to refer to the German experience to underline that only a productive fabric made up mainly of medium-sized industrial companies is able to achieve export performance. We are very far from this model which has proven itself.
