Who benefits from the coup in Niger, the third in the Sahel region in as many years? For the moment, no one ventures to deliver an answer as there are very few elements that allow a serious and clear-cut conclusion to be drawn.
The Russian flags waved by pro-junta demonstrators in Niamey on Sunday do not prove that Niger has joined Russia’s fold, much less the involvement of Moscow or Wagner’s mercenaries in the coup.
On the other hand, there is less caution when it comes to determining the loser, if the soldiers manage to have their fait accompli accepted. Many, if not all, point to France. Starting with the French themselves.
In the Parisian press, a sentence comes back as an established truth since Wednesday, July 26: with the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum by his presidential guard, France loses its last ally in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel. The newspaper Le Figaro even evokes a “last domino” which falls within the framework of French influence in the region.
After Mali and Burkina Faso, Niger is returning to military coups after a relatively long period of stability on the scale of Africa. In the three countries, the coups have been played against the interests of France in this region, plagued by the economic crisis, terrorism and political instability.
Things may not be irreversible in Niger, the Quai d’Orsay considering that “the situation is not final” in this country. But if the junta manages to hold out against strong pressure from its neighbors in ECOWAS, Algeria, Westerners and the main international organizations, Paris will have to put an additional cross on the map of its square meadows in Africa.
France has been losing ground in its former colonies for several years, thanks to the rise in public opinion of anti-Western sentiment seized on the fly and taken advantage of by military putschists.
Niger: France and ECOWAS firmly threaten the junta
In Niger, at least during the day on Sunday, the junta and the demonstrators spoke with one voice when it came to France. The sign of the embassy of this country in Niamey was torn down and replaced by Russian and Nigerian flags.
On television, the junta vilified France, which it accuses of wanting to intervene militarily in Niger, a few days after accusing it of violating the country’s sovereignty by landing a military plane at Niamey airport while the military ordered the borders closed.
Is France really considering a military intervention to restore President Mohamed Bazoum? She shows in any case a great determination to bend the putschists.
The reaction of the Elysée to the events of Sunday in front of the French embassy in Niamey is also very firm. President Emmanuel Macron has promised an immediate and intractable response if French nationals or interests in Niger are attacked.
France has 1,500 soldiers stationed in Niger and 600 nationals. For the moment, no evacuation is planned.
France has all the more leeway to act in that it is not alone in the rejection of the coup de force. The European Union has announced the freezing of its aid, the United States has threatened to do the same and the countries of ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) no longer even exclude a direct military intervention.
Meeting on Sunday in Abuja, the heads of state of the organization issued an order to the Nigerien junta to ” completely ” restore constitutional order within a week, failing which, measures will be taken which do not exclude “use of force”.
Political instability is one of the main obstacles to development in the Sahel region, which has also been confronted for several years with the rise in terrorist violence. If ECOWAS shows such firmness, it is also to signify that coups d’etat will no longer be tolerated in Africa.
As the French Foreign Ministry put it, “the situation is not final” in Niamey and France may not have lost its last backyard in the Sahel. At least not yet.
