France aims to forge a “renewed partnership” with Algeria but will have to take into account the geopolitical upheavals that are crossing the western Mediterranean and Algerian-Moroccan tensions
French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said Monday that the two countries had “advanced” towards “a renewed, long-term partnership”, after a two-day visit to Algeria.
In the largest country in Africa, which has the largest army in the Maghreb, “France has a strong desire to find an ally” and not just a “partner”, believes Dalia Ghanem, analyst at the Institute of European Union Security Studies (EUISS). “While it has always had a privileged relationship with the Maghreb, today we have a Europe that is losing momentum in the Maghreb to the benefit of other players, Turkey, China…”
Very worrying” situation
“If you are in the mind of President (Algerian Abdelmajid) Tebboune or his chief of staff, the world is moving a lot, we don’t really know where it is going, but it creates chaos, violence” , believes the director general of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES), former Admiral Pascal Ausseur.
“We are surrounded by flames and we do not know which way the wind will go, whether it will push towards us or not, in any case it is very worrying”, he continues, citing the global weakening of the Western power and the jihadist thrust in the Sahel, on the steps of Algeria.
In this context “the psychological problem with France becomes secondary” for Algerian leaders heirs to a system born of the bloody war of independence (1954-1962), adds Pascal Ausseur. As to whether this will encourage them to go beyond it and consider more coldly the “shared interests” with the former colonial power, only the future will tell, he adds.
“The dynamics change”
“It’s an interregnum” between a bygone order and a new one that remains to be defined, observes Raffaella Del Sarto, teacher on the Middle East at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) for Europe at the University Johns Hopkins. “It’s very difficult to make predictions about the Middle East and North Africa right now because the dynamics are changing.”
“Over the past few months, Algeria has repositioned itself as a very important player in the western Mediterranean,” says Raffaella Del Sarto. “It is courted by many international or European players”, such as Italy which diversified its gas supply thanks to an agreement in July.
“Ensuring Stability”
EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson pleaded on Tuesday for a “long-term strategic partnership” with Algeria, one of Europe’s “most reliable” gas suppliers, which has turned to her for compensate for the drop in Russian deliveries after the invasion of Ukraine.
For the former Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs Arancha Gonzalez Laya, “what all the Member States of the European Union have in common today is the need to anchor Algeria’s relations with European Union. Firstly because in a moment of geopolitical turbulence, we must ensure stability in the immediate vicinity”.
Western Sahara crisis
However, the open crisis between Algeria and Morocco, which have been opposed for decades over the status of Western Sahara, and which severed their diplomatic relations in 2021, complicates the equation.
“The question of Western Sahara remains a thorn in the side of the European Union, the African Union and the Maghreb in particular, because it is an issue that is screwing up the future of 85 million North Africans”, deplores Dalia Ghanem. However, she does not “think that France wants to jeopardize its privileged relationship with Morocco” by getting closer to the Algerian position.
“Moroccans will never be able to accept from France that it seeks in one way or another to spare Algeria on the Sahara issue”, warned Ali Bouabid, researcher and general delegate of the Abderrahim Bouabid Foundation at the end of September. , a Moroccan pro-democracy think tank.
“The territorial integrity of Morocco is simply not intended to appear implicitly or explicitly as a parameter of the relationship between France and Algeria”, he insisted.
Among the challenges facing the Algerian leaders, Pascal Ausseur cites “the Israel/Morocco alliance, a huge blow for Algeria” because it is likely to offset its military numerical superiority with a “qualitative ascendancy”.
Among the challenges facing the Algerian leaders, Pascal Ausseur cites “the Israel/Morocco alliance, a huge blow for Algeria” because it is likely to offset its military numerical superiority with a “qualitative ascendancy”.
