For several weeks, Tunisians have already been short of bread. The war in Ukraine and the surge in world wheat prices have led to fears of the worst for the supply of the country, which imports a quarter of its consumption. Especially since bread, which is heavily subsidized, is an essential commodity for the majority of the population.
It’s 12 noon and Mohamed, a sandwich seller in the Omran district of Tunis, has finished his day. Or rather, he can no longer work: I usually have around forty baguettes. This morning I only had fifteen. It’s all gone. For several weeks, Tunisians have been struggling to buy bread, flour and couscous semolina. The reasons are old and multiple. But the war in Ukraine, the country’s leading wheat supplier, will make matters worse.
Each year, a Tunisian consumes 74 kg of bread, against 58 kg for a Frenchman. The product has two advantages: it is nutritious and very inexpensive, as it is subsidized by the state. Thus, the baguette that Tunisians pay today the equivalent of 0.06 €, actually costs 0.13 €. Bread is considered highly strategic. No one here has forgotten the bread riots in the winter of 1984 which left a hundred dead.
The authorities claim to have a sufficient stock of wheat until June, which many observers doubt. The upcoming wheat harvest is expected to be average. The drought that is affecting all of North Africa adds to the erosion and salinization of the soil, not to mention the discouragement of farmers in the face of too low prices… It will therefore still be necessary to import massively.
An unlivable situation
According to the Public Cereals Office, which has the monopoly, Tunisia consumed 2.42 million tonnes of wheat (soft and durum) in 2021 for a local production of only 682,600 tonnes. Problem: out of 1.74 million tonnes imported, 984,016 tonnes came from… Ukraine. And 111,266 tons from Russia, the fourth supplier.
Each year, the State, despite being in great budgetary difficulty, spends a total of more than 2.2 billion euros to subsidize bread, flour or semolina. However, with the current high level of cereal prices, which continues to rise because of the war in Ukraine, the additional cost of subsidies is estimated at 401 million euros by the Arab Institute of Business Leaders, a “ Tunisian think tank.
Should we charge the real price of the baguette? Discussions with the International Monetary Fund to obtain a new loan of 3.5 billion euros are considering the possibility of limiting state subsidies. But without compensation, the price of pasta could increase by 20%. An unbearable situation for a majority of the 12 million Tunisians and highly explosive for the authorities, less than a month from the start of Ramadan, a period paradoxically of high food expenditure. For now, the government is content to blame speculators and hoarders.
