The Twenty-Seven, led by Italy, are giving priority to controlling migratory flows, without really taking seriously the anti-Western speeches of the head of state.
He ultimately declined the invitation. Invited to the G7 summit, which is being held from Thursday, June 13 to Saturday, June 15 in southern Italy, the Tunisian President, Kaïs Saïed, will be represented by the head of government, Ahmed Hachani. No explanation has been put forward while relations between Rome and Tunis are in good shape. Georgia Meloni, the President of the Italian Council, visited Tunisia four times in less than a year. And Kaïs Saïed, despite his authoritarian drift, remains an interlocutor to be careful with Westerners.
Their relative leniency is due to the priority given by the European Union (EU) to the control of migratory flows, particularly from the southern shore of the Mediterranean, within the framework of the memorandum of understanding signed on July 16, 2023, with Tunisia. Recent tensions linked to concerns expressed by the EU, France, and the United States following the wave of arrests of journalists, lawyers, and NGO leaders in May have not fundamentally altered That relationship.
Certainly, the criticisms from Brussels, Paris, and Washington have angered Kaïs Saïed, who summoned the ambassadors concerned and reaffirmed the refusal of any foreign interference. But on the European side, they preferred to wait and let the storm pass. For good reason, the cooperation between Tunisia and the EU in terms of controlling migratory flows is showing results. Since the beginning of the year, less than 23,000 migrants have landed on the Italian coasts, compared to nearly 60,000 during the same period in 2023.
In May, the Tunisian Minister of the Interior, Kamel Feki (since dismissed), told parliamentarians, during a closed-door hearing, that the borders were closely monitored in response to requests from certain European leaders as the approach European elections, according to revelations from the newspaper Acharaa El Magharibi confirmed by MP Yassine Mami.
Turn the table over
“Italy has always argued for maintaining ties with Kaïs Saïed and continues to rely on him to ensure the stability of the country,” analyzes Hamza Meddeb, a researcher at the Carnegie Middle East Center think tank. Overall, European capitals today favor a transactional approach, with migration, security, and energy as priorities. If the price to pay is to turn a blind eye to the lack of an electoral calendar or human rights, they will do it. »
Professor of constitutional law described at the time as a “radical conservative”, Kaïs Saïed came to power in October 2019 after a clear victory in the presidential election. His campaign, focused on the fight against corruption, the rejection of traditional political elites, and a system of decentralized participatory democracy, found a favorable response among Tunisians, particularly young people, disillusioned by ten years of post-revolution political crises and a democratic transition process deemed unsatisfactory.
On July 25, 2021, amid the Covid-19 crisis and with the worsening of political blockages and the economic crisis, Kaïs Saïed turned the tables by suspending Parliament and granting himself full powers, an action described as a ” coup d’état” by its detractors but generally accepted by the international community. A year later, he confirmed his hyper-presidential turn by adopting a new Constitution which gave him extensive powers.
Since his coup, the strongman of Carthage has undertaken a methodical dismantling of the intermediary bodies and institutions set up after the overthrow of Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali in 2011, a post-revolutionary period that his supporters call “the black decade”. Governing by decree, he took the unilateral decision to definitively dissolve Parliament in March 2022, after suspending the application of the Constitution and dissolving the Council of the Judiciary.
The same year, he increased his grip on the judiciary by dismissing around fifty judges, before attacking freedom of expression with the publication of Decree-Law 54, promulgated in September 2022 to combat “fake news”. As early as 2023, dozens of opponents from different political parties, mostly executives of the Islamist Ennahda party – including its leader, Rached Ghannouchi – were imprisoned and accused of plotting against state security or intelligence with foreign powers. Several journalists, trade unionists, businessmen, lawyers, and NGO leaders were imprisoned and prosecuted on the same charges.
Manhunts
At the same time, repression against sub-Saharan migrants has intensified. Accused by the Head of State of participating in a plot aimed at changing the “demographic composition” of the country, the latter was the subject of real manhunts from July 2023. Several thousand of them were expelled from their homes, dismissed, or moved to the borders, in the middle of the desert, at the time of signing the memorandum of understanding with the EU.
In his speeches, the president willingly plays a standoff with Westerners, rejecting any criticism – even timid – from abroad as an attack on the country’s sovereignty. But if he pleads for a rapprochement with Russia or China, which he received at the end of May during a state visit, he can hardly afford to break with the West. Europe is Tunisia’s largest trading partner and the United States provides significant financial support to its army. The about-face by Kaïs Saïed, who rejected the adoption of a law criminalizing relations with Israel in November 2023, would illustrate the pressure levers that Washington still has, according to several Tunisian deputies.
On May 19, an article in the Italian daily La Repubblica reporting that “Russian military” planes had landed on the island of Djerba caused some excitement. Although this information was denied by Moscow and Tunis, the fear of a pro-Russian shift in Tunisia, traditionally affiliated with the Western camp, would mark a break, although the change in diplomatic trajectory claimed by the president and his “anti-imperialist” discourse has only very little materialized in reality. “I think that no one takes him seriously,” comments Hamza Meddeb. ” All his diplomatic gesticulations are not followed by concrete actions, it is just a speech and slogans.”
