The results of the first round of the legislative elections have shaken up French political life. Between a breakthrough by the extreme right and a crumbling of the presidential party, what should we remember from this election? La Presse spoke with two experts.
What messages do these results send?
According to Laurie Beaudonnet, professor in the political science department at the University of Montreal and director of the Jean Monnet Centre, these results show above all “the collapse of the presidential majority.”
Emmanuel Macron’s bet to dissolve the National Assembly to regain a majority and thus allow him to comfortably finish his five-year term “did not work.”
This view is shared by Julien Robin, a doctoral student in political science at the University of Montreal. According to him, Sunday’s results show that a “paradigm shift” is hitting French political life hard.
“There, we see a navy blue wave in the vast majority of French constituencies,” says the man who specializes in the evolution of parliamentary groups in the National Assembly over the last 15 years. “We are seeing the predictable rise of the RN [National Rally] for 20 to 30 years and which is happening before our eyes.”
The gradual metamorphosis of French political life has accelerated over the past seven years with the arrival of Emmanuel Macron to power.
“[He] blew up the dams between the left and the right, except that this time, it strengthened the RN,” adds Julien Robin. “We see that he dominated the first round, but above all that he has established himself deeply in the French electorate. He has an electoral base that no longer moves and that is loyal to him.”
What to expect in the second round?
For Julien Robin, the most plausible scenario would rule out the idea of a “large absolute majority” for the RN in the National Assembly, but would instead give it a comfortable majority, whether absolute or relative.
These elections are marked by a record number of constituencies in which three candidates qualified for the second round, otherwise known as triangular. There were several hundred of them on Sunday evening compared to only 8 in 2022.
“Before, there was a multiplication of candidates, but now, coalitions were formed in the first round,” explains Julien Robin. “By doing this, we maximize our chances of qualifying for the second round, whereas before, coalitions were formed in the second round.”
Laurie Beaudonnet expects to see movement in these constituencies during the second round, particularly because of withdrawals and the fragmentation of the presidential camp. She maintains that many candidates still think it is possible to “block the far right.”
What would cohabitation mean for Emmanuel Macron?
The choice of prime minister inevitably falls to the president, but the rule is that he follows the color of the majority group in the National Assembly.
Even though his prime minister is from a different political family, Emmanuel Macron still retains certain powers. For example, he continues to represent France on the international stage and remains head of the armed forces.
“It is the Prime Minister who has executive power, so in this case, the President is the guarantor of the institutions,” explains Laurie Beaudonnet. “He could exercise a role of safeguard as in Italy, where the President of the Republic can have a discourse of moderation with regard to reforms of the political system.”
Given the lack of consensus within his camp around the dissolution of the National Assembly, President Macron has “started to lose a lot of his support,” says Ms.Beaudonnet.
“He will most likely be very isolated after the [second round]. He will continue to have prerogatives and certain roles that are his as head of state […], but it will be very complicated.”
The president, however, remains the one who appoints the people who sit on the Constitutional Council. The latter ensures that laws comply with the French Constitution and repeals them if they do not. Emmanuel Macron must appoint these members in 2025 before the end of his term.
Will France be easily governed?
In the case of a relative majority for the RN, the party will have difficulty making alliances to pass its proposed laws, because it has “no ideological base” with many parties in the National Assembly, explains Laurie Beaudonnet.
“The right and the centre have no interest in supporting the RN government because they have an interest in things not going well for it for the next three years,” explains Laurie Beaudonnet.
According to her, the aim here is to make the National Rally appear as “a party that is not capable of governing.”
