The organization of so-called emerging countries, which have recently surpassed the G7 in terms of contribution to world GDP, is holding its summit from August 22 to 24 in South Africa. It will give its verdict on the new applications for membership, in particular, that of Algeria
Appeared in the early 2000s, under the impetus of British economist Jim O’Neill, to designate emerging markets, the acronym BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) then BRICS ( since the accession of the South Africa in 2011) has not ceased to animate the debates, this summer more than ever when the five powers are holding their summit from August 22 to 24 in Johannesburg (South Africa).
This circle of states with the most promising economies was first thought of as a source of high-yield assets for investors from G8 countries (G7 since Russia was sidelined in 2014 after the invasion of Crimea) and not as a form of organization competing with them.
There is nevertheless a growing politicization of the group, especially since the accentuation of the Sino-American rivalry in recent years and the establishment of Western sanctions against Moscow following the annexation of Crimea and then the invasion of Ukraine .
Today, the BRICS are presenting themselves as the guarantors of the transition towards a new, more multilateral international economic order which would eventually overthrow the hegemony of the American dollar in international transactions.
A speech that attracts, particularly in developing countries or in search of greater strategic autonomy, especially since the BRICS have recently surpassed the G7 in terms of contribution to world GDP and are now discussing a future currency. specific to trade between Member States.
Shake up traditional alliances
No fewer than fifteen countries have expressed or hinted at their intention to join the BRICS group over the past two years, including Argentina, Mexico, Turkey, Senegal, Iran, Indonesia, Kazakhstan but also Arab countries such as Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Tunisia.
Long indisputable allies of the Americans and still very dependent on the latter in terms of security, the Gulf monarchies are looking for more autonomy vis-à-vis Washington.
Very recently, this has manifested itself through the normalization of Iranian-Saudi relations under but also through the reintegration of Syria – mainly through the efforts of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – into the Arab League, under the helpless gaze of the United States and the European chancelleries which categorically refuse to deal with Bashar al-Assad, who is, moreover, openly aligned with Moscow on the Ukrainian dossier.
The stated objective for the Gulf countries is now to maintain peaceful relations with their close neighbours, even if it means shaking up traditional alliances.
The other challenge, particularly for Saudi Arabia, is that of getting out of dependence on oil – a sector in which it cooperates closely with the Americans but also increasingly with the Chinese. To this end, many megaprojects are born in the kingdom so as to diversify its economy and its partners as much as possible at the same time.
It must also be said that since the arrival of Joe Biden in the White House, the American administration has been less conciliatory with regard to Riyadh. Biden had also himself called for a review of US-Saudi relations after the kingdom and OPEC+ decided to lower their oil production in October 2022, amid an energy crisis in Europe.
Previously, he had also not failed to call Mohammed bin Salman to order on the issue of human rights , which had not pleased the Saudis.
All are trying to take advantage of the breach left open by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to emancipate themselves from their historical allies and impose themselves as full players in this rapidly changing international system.
What could be more natural for that than to knock on the door of the BRICS, which promises them this new multipolar world so much desired. In this sense, the New Development Bank (NBD) based in Shanghai – which wants to be an alternative to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – had already announced to welcome the United Arab Emirates in the fall of 2021 and, more recently this year, Egypt.
Today, it is Saudi Arabia which is showing interest in obtaining loans from it and which should therefore join it shortly.
Present at the last meeting of the group’s foreign ministers, Saudi minister Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud said that his country was the largest Arab trading partner of the BRICS group.
The total value of trade between Riyadh and the BRICS countries rose from $81 billion in 2017 to $128 billion in 2021 to exceed $160 billion last year.
Algeria, a coherent candidacy
In August 2022, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune announced his intention to join the BRICS. Formalized, the Algerian candidacy very quickly obtained the consent of Russia and then of China.
The Algerian president advances the argument according to the BRICS would constitute a “considerable economic and political power” able to preserve his country, a “pioneer of non-alignment”, from “the extreme polarization of the world”.
Contrary to those of the monarchies, the Algerian candidacy has more a political tint than an economic one. The international landscape having evolved considerably and the concept of the “Third World” has given way to that of the “Global South”, Algiers perceives in this club of emerging powers a sort of reincarnation of the Non-Aligned Movement of which it was one. standard bearers at the time.
In 1974, Houari Boumediene had moreover been the first head of state in the world to officially evoke the notion of a “new international economic order” during his speech to the General Assembly of the United Nations.
Algeria was also, along with states such as Brazil, Mexico, India and Venezuela, a founding member of the G15, a group founded in Belgrade in 1989 whose objective was to act as a counterweight to the G7, which had fallen into disuse in during the 2000s.
Algeria’s ambitions for reforming the international system are therefore far from recent and are even anchored in the DNA of its diplomacy .
The Algerian candidacy comes at a time that is all the more opportune since the government in place is displaying its desire to reconnect with the principles that have made the country’s past influence and that the BRICS are tending to present themselves more in a politico-strategic aspect.
But the identity of the group rests – at least for the moment – always primarily on economic standards with which Algiers struggles to comply, although President Tebboune has announced his desire to accelerate reforms in this direction.
With such an undiversified economy and relatively low trade with member states (apart from China), Algeria could take second place to the powerful Gulf monarchies or even Egypt, which is a market of 109 million people.
Algiers will, however, have a card to play by promoting its new investment code, which is intended to be less restrictive vis-à-vis foreign investors, as well as infrastructures such as the trans-Saharan road and the future port of El Hamdania (at the west of Algiers), which would make it a privileged gateway to Africa.
The case of Tunisia, bluff or long-term vision?
Regarding Tunisia, it expressed its interest in the BRICS at the beginning of the spring, without submitting an official application. The motivations for this wish to join are, however, quite singular.
Tunisia has been plunged for several years into a deep economic crisis, which has worsened since 2021. The country’s public debt has reached 90% of GDP and the Tunisian state is encountering serious difficulties in financing itself.
The financial support of its partners, and in particular of Algeria, which granted it several aids, is not sufficient and Tunis is therefore now forced to seek the support of international financial institutions.
But the very sovereigntist and populist Kais Saied is reluctant to comply with the conditions and budgetary reforms imposed by traditional lenders, in particular the International Monetary Fund.
He declared on June 14, during a visit to the city of Gafsa, that his people “only prostrate themselves before Allah” and that “no sura of the Koran bears the name of ”IMF””.
Tunisia’s traditional Western allies are much less inclined to support it unconditionally, due to the constitutional coup operated in the summer of 2021 by the Tunisian president, which they perceive as a serious attack on the country’s democratic achievements.
And if an agreement on immigration leading de facto Tunis to play the role of policeman in the Mediterranean in exchange for aid from the European Union was concluded at the beginning of the summer, the latter remains insufficient in the face of the seriousness of the situation.
The Tunisian government, therefore, seems determined to seek help from alternative bodies, including the BRICS group and its NBD. However, this bank is less intended to financially support States in difficulty than to contribute to the financing of projects within those who join it.
Kais Saied is probably trying to brandish his desire for rapprochement with the BRICS as a threat to his Western partners, who have every interest in keeping Tunisia in their fold. As for the BRICS, they can only rejoice at the interest shown in them – China having already expressed its satisfaction – although we should not expect an imminent accession from Tunisia, its least strategic scope and its limited relations with the members not offering a solid basis for its possible future candidacy.
Despite the distinct ambitions of the Arab States, these numerous candidacies reflect a desire to enter fully into globalization and above all to become major players in it – and not to remain spectators. The BRICS will now, according to their interests, agree on the political and economic criteria to be favored in their enlargement process.
