The Polisario Front, an independence movement in Western Sahara, is still holding its 16th congress in a refugee camp in Algeria. At this first congress since the ceasefire broke in 2020, Brahim Ghali, secretary general of the Algerian-backed movement, was offensive and issued a message for the continuation of the armed struggle against Morocco. Real threat or political strategy?
The Western Sahara conflict is described as “lukewarm” by specialists. This conflict has experienced little tension since the ceasefire concluded in 1991. But the resumption of arms, in 2020, has put the question back on the international scene. While Rabat clings to the Moroccanness of the Sahara, the Polisario rejects “the Moroccan occupation”.
Faced with Morocco endowed with sophisticated weapons, the Polisario claims to have no other choice than that of war. “ Only solution,” he says to obtain independence. So should we fear new fights in the weeks to come? Not necessarily, says Aboubakr Jamai, a teacher of international relations in Aix-en-Provence. According to him, the Polisario’s warmongering discourse is a strategy aimed at keeping the conflict on the radar of the international community and a way to find a political solution.
“In my opinion, the Polisario has an interest in waving the red rag of war to tell those who can influence the resolution process, namely the United Nations obviously, but above all the United States and European Union, that the region risks being destabilized and that it is better to resolve this conflict as soon as possible and to resolve it by organizing the referendum as it was decided by the UN a long time ago and which asserts itself each year through the renewal of the mandate of Minurso [UN Mission in Western Sahara editor’s note], whose main mission is the organization of the referendum. This language of war comes above all from Polisario’s desire to draw more attention to the status quo is more in favor of Morocco than anything else”.
Since 1991, the United Nations have failed to find a way out of this conflict. The UN proposes autonomy for the region for five years, then a referendum, but the obstacles to this plan, led by the former special envoy, the American James Becker, are numerous and come from each side.
“Regularly, the Polisario Front highlights the resumption of fighting, but I honestly think that this is not possible, the Polisario Front probably has obsolete weapons, explains Khadija Mohsen-Finan, a political scientist specialist in the Maghreb and the Arab world. Personally, I believe that the only way out of this crisis is a political solution. If it cannot be done between Algeria and Morocco, there needs to be a State or an outside third-party group that can bring these two States to their senses, so that the Western Sahara conflict is not caught up in this structural dispute now between Algeria and Morocco”.
“The only way out of this crisis is a political solution”
Since 2020, Morocco has made the issue of Western Sahara its absolute priority, King Mohamed VI has even called on partner countries to “clarify” their position and support him. As for the UN process for a solution via a referendum, it still seems broken down. “It could not be done because sometimes Morocco said no, sometimes Algeria said no, and in reality, Morocco is very afraid of a referendum which would not prove it right, and Algeria with the front Polisario are absolutely curled up on this notion of self-determination which suggests that it would go towards independence of Western Sahara. Obviously, the United Nations is doubled on actions carried out by Morocco and by Algeria in an autonomous way, but also by the Polisario”,
But opposite, Algeria is regaining strength, in particular, because of the war in Ukraine which is reshuffling the cards and making it an essential player on the international scene: “There is a need for Algeria, for the energy, but also for support in the Sahel and in terms of access to Africa”, concludes Khadija Mohsen Finan. The Western Sahara conflict remains a major dispute between Algeria and Morocco.
