According to Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa specialist at the International Crisis Group, “the risk of a military conflict is low but should not be underestimated”.
The serious crisis between Algeria and Morocco over Western Sahara has turned into a war of diplomatic attrition that goes beyond the region and raises fears of an explosion for lack of a solution in sight, according to analysts.
Emboldened by the recognition by the administration of Donald Trump, at the end of 2020, of its sovereignty over this disputed territory in return for a rapprochement with Israel, Morocco has since deployed an increasingly offensive diplomacy to rally other countries to its positions. King Mohammed VI warned in August that such support should be “unambiguous” , saying that the Sahara issue was “the prism through which Morocco considers its international environment”.
Opposite, the great Algerian rival continues to display its unfailing support for the Sahrawi separatists of the Polisario Front. Algiers is also taking advantage of its status as a gas exporter pampered by Europe seeking to offset Russian gas to score points in its remote diplomatic duel with Rabat, with which it broke relations in August 2021.
“We are witnessing a diplomatic war in which the two parties are using all means without going as far as an open conflict,” said Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa specialist at the International Crisis Group (ICG).
Brahim Ghali received by the Tunisian President
The latest episode in this diplomatic confrontation took place at the end of August, when Morocco recalled its ambassador to Tunisia for consultations after President Kaïs Saïed received the leader of the Polisario, Brahim Ghali, on the occasion of an economic summit in Japan. -Africa. This incident shows that “the conflict in Western Sahara is beginning to have repercussions outside the Morocco-Algeria bilateral framework, underlines Mr. Fabiani. Morocco will now consider Tunisia as part of the pro-Algerian camp.”
The hospitalization of Mr. Ghali in Spain, in April 2021, had caused a serious crisis between Madrid and Rabat, culminating with the entry the following month of more than 10,000 migrants in twenty-four hours in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta , thanks to a relaxation of border controls on the Moroccan side. Madrid put an end to this crisis by aligning itself in March with the Moroccan autonomy plan for Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony controlled 80% by Rabat. The Polisario calls for a self-determination referendum under the aegis of the UN. In reaction to Madrid’s reversal, Algeria suspended its cooperation with Spain, recalled its ambassador and mentioned an increase in the price of Algerian gas delivered to Spain.
Located on the Atlantic coast, Western Sahara (266,000 km 2 ) is rich in phosphates and has a coastline full of fish over 1,000 km. A ceasefire in effect since 1991 was shattered in November 2020 after the deployment of Moroccan troops in the far south of the territory to dislodge separatists who were blocking the road, according to them opened illegally, towards Mauritania . Tension rose further in November 2021 after Algeria reported a Moroccan bombing that killed three Algerian truckers in the Sahrawi territory.
“It’s a delicate and dangerous moment”
For Mr. Fabiani, Mr. Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara in exchange for normalization with Israel, to the great displeasure of Algiers, “reactivated a conflict that had been frozen for a long time in favor of a sort of pax Americana.
“During the past decade, Morocco has beefed up its diplomacy, particularly in Africa and towards certain countries of the European Union [EU], while Algeria was lagging behind”, dissects Dalia Ghanem, of the Institute of EU Safety Studies (IESUE). Algeria, with its gas wealth enhanced by the conflict in Ukraine, “intends to strengthen its role in the region and become a leader in Africa”, she believes.
“We are witnessing a worrying tendency to see everything in the region through the prism of the Algerian-Moroccan rivalry,” notes Anthony Dworkin, of the European Council for International Relations. This is a delicate and dangerous moment.
The UN envoy for Western Sahara, Staffan de Mistura, made a new visit to the region this weekend, without the slightest sign of a possible resumption of the dialogue that has been suspended for several years. “The risk of a military conflict is low because neither side wants it. But this should not be underestimated. All it takes is a border incident and a bad calculation,” warns Mr. Fabiani.
