The volumes of exports and imports of goods and services would have increased by 20.9% and 22.1% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2022, in annual variations, underlines the HCP in a note published, this Tuesday, January 3, 2023.
Morocco’s trade remains strong despite the unstable global context, notes the High Commission for Planning (HCP). At the national level, the volumes of exports and imports of goods and services would have increased by 20.9% and 22.1% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2022, in annual variations.
Automotive and phosphate boost exports
In value terms, the increase in goods exports would have reached 17%, supported by relatively resilient external demand. Shipments from the automotive sector would have contributed +9.7 points to the overall change in exports, driven by sales in the construction and wiring segments, in line with the recovery in the global automotive market that began in Q3 2022. Those of phosphates and of their derivatives, in particular natural and chemical fertilizers, would have contributed +2.8 points, followed by those of electrical and electronic products. With a contribution of +0.6 points, the external sales of the textile and leather industry, in particular those of ready-made clothing and shoes, would have benefited from the positive price effect on exports.
Conversely, shipments of agricultural and agri-food products would have experienced a contrasting trend, the former with a negative contribution of 0.5 points like those of citrus fruits which would have fallen back, the latter with a positive contribution of 1.8 points.
The energy bill soars imports
The growth momentum in imports of goods in value terms appears to have continued in Q4 2022 to reach +36.1%, boosted by the rise, albeit less sustained, in import prices. The energy bill would have contributed +12.6 points to the overall change in imports, fueled by purchases of diesel and fuel oil, petroleum gas, and other hydrocarbons.
Excluding energy, imports would have been driven by acquisitions of semi-finished products, in particular those of ammonia, plastics, chemicals and paper, and cardboard. Purchases of industrial capital goods appear to have contributed +6.2 points to the rise in imports, followed by those of food products, in particular those of wheat and maize, in a context of a fall in the local supply. Imports of finished consumer products would have been, for their part, driven by purchases of passenger cars and their spare parts.
The more significant increase in imports of goods, in value, compared to exports would have accentuated the deficit in the trade balance of goods and led to a decline in the coverage rate in Q4 2022 of 9.4 points, compared to the same period by 2021, to reach 57.7%.
The slowdown in global growth
The global economy would have been shaken in the fourth quarter of 2022 by the successive and generalized tightening of monetary policies and the maintenance of strong inflationary pressures. Economic growth appears to have decelerated in the United States, essentially due to the tightening of access to credit, which appears to have affected private consumption and residential investment. In the eurozone, the activity would have been less dynamic, after having increased by 2.3% in the third quarter of 2022. The still high level of inflation would have slowed down the recovery in consumer spending that began in mid-2022.
Demand for services appears to have weakened, after being particularly dynamic in the second and third quarters, and the indicators relating to new orders in the manufacturing sector appear to have tipped downwards. The main emerging economies, for their part, would have suffered from the slowdown in demand from advanced countries and the tightening of financial conditions. Thus, industrial activity appears to have slowed in China, in the context of continuing difficulties in the real estate sector.
International merchandise trade also appears to have decelerated during the same period, penalized by the slowdown in demand and industrial activity in advanced economies. In this context, the growth rate of foreign demand addressed to Morocco would have slowed down, to reach +4.5%, in annual variation, after rising to +5.4% in the third quarter of 2022.
