In the heart of Northern Europe, a promise seems about to be kept. Sweden’s long-pending NATO membership is finally taking shape. Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström recently announced that Turkey was preparing to ratify this accession, marking a crucial step in international relations. However, the stakes of this decision are not limited to Sweden and Turkey but have repercussions well beyond their borders.
Expectations and Uncertainties
Since May 2022, Sweden’s NATO accession protocol has been awaiting validation by the 31 members of the Atlantic Alliance. Turkey and Hungary had expressed reservations, thus slowing down the process. The recent meeting between Tobias Billström and his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, has revived hopes of an imminent resolution.
However, caution remains in order. As Billström emphasized, “We never take anything for granted.” International politics is often filled with uncertainty, and this membership is no exception.
The Echo of Hungary
Hungary, which had also expressed reservations, said it would not be the last country to ratify Sweden’s membership in NATO. This statement suggests a possible step forward in the process.
The Turkish Parliament began considering Sweden’s NATO accession protocol in November, marking a step forward. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan previously lifted his veto in July, stressing that the final decision rests with the Turkish Parliament.
International Pressures
The international commitment to this membership is clear. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated the need for Turkey to ratify Sweden’s membership “as quickly as possible”. France, through Minister Catherine Colonna, also called not to “waste another day”. International pressures are intensifying, highlighting the importance of this membership for NATO.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, meanwhile, urged Turkey to ratify Sweden’s membership “as soon as possible”. He stressed that Sweden had fulfilled its obligations and that the time had come for Turkey to finalize the accession process.
The European Union and Turkey: A New Beginning?
The European Union (EU), faced with the impasse in its relations with Turkey, is seeking to start again on a new basis. Negotiations between the EU and Turkey have been frozen since 2018, but it seems that the time has come for a new start.
Josep Borrell, head of European diplomacy, and Oliver Varhelyi, the European commissioner in charge of the EU’s neighboring countries, proposed reopening a high-level dialogue with Ankara. They also want to improve cooperation on subjects of “common interest”, such as migration, energy, trade, or even the allocation of visas to Turkish nationals.
On the issue of visas, Oliver Varhelyi argued in favor of granting visas with multiple entries and for longer durations, a long-standing demand from Turkey. A “modernization” of the customs union agreement between the EU and Turkey is also envisaged, taking into account the growing trade between the two parties.
One Step at a Time
It is important to note that these proposals come with caution. Borrell and Varhelyi insist on the need to proceed “step by step” and in a “proportional” manner. The ability to go back at any time remains an option.
In the context of the war in Ukraine, the EU also wants to discuss with Turkey ways to prevent Russia from circumventing sanctions decided by the West. NATO member Turkey has so far refused to take sanctions against Russia.
These recommendations must still receive the approval of the 27 EU member states before they can be implemented. The future of relations between the EU and Turkey therefore remains to be written.
Sweden’s accession to NATO, about to be ratified by Turkey, constitutes a key moment in international relations. International pressure for this membership underlines its importance for the Atlantic Alliance. At the same time, the EU is seeking to renew dialogue with Turkey, thus opening the door to new opportunities for cooperation. However, caution remains in order, and the future of international relations remains fraught with uncertainty. In a constantly changing world, every step towards cooperation and mutual understanding is a step in the right direction.
