This is a big year in global politics. Many countries have already had or will have elections this year, and North Africa is no exception. While serious ideological shifts appear to be taking place in Europe and uncertainty looms in the United States, with two aging candidates and frustrated voters, the elections in North Africa are essentially window dressing, with no real impact on politics and the economy. There is no prospect of excitement or change in politics and governance.
The last elections in the region took place in late June 2024, when General Mohamed Ould Ghazouani of Mauritania won a second term with a fairly credible 56% of the vote. This contrasts with what happened in December 2023, when another North African general, Egypt’s Abdelfattah Al-Sisi, won with a less credible 89.6% of the vote, with his closest competitor winning 4.5%.
Two more North African countries are set to hold elections later this year, and the results have likely already been decided. But let’s review some basics.
The winner, certainly Kaïs Saïed
In Tunisia, the first round of elections is scheduled to take place on October 6, 2024. President Kaïs Saïed announced the election date by presidential decree published on July 2. The election will be held in two rounds. If no candidate obtains an absolute majority in the first round, a second round will be held within two weeks of the final results and the winner, most likely Kaïs Saïed, will be declared on November 9, with provisional results published a month earlier.
If you want to run for president in Tunisia, make sure you are a descendant of Tunisian maternal and paternal grandparents. In addition, you must be a Muslim at least 40 years old and meet other requirements. To be eligible, at least 10 parliamentarians must support you. Otherwise, candidates need 10,000 signatures from voters from at least 10 constituencies, each with a minimum of 500 signatures per constituency. The government does not contribute to the financing of elections, so candidates must either be wealthy or raise funds on their own, which can only be spent during a 21-day campaign period.
In theory, there is no shortage of candidates willing to run against Saied, who has not yet announced his candidacy. However, those who have spoken out against him are either in prison or are being harassed and threatened. One of them, Abir Moussi, is behind bars for offending the security services. Moussi, a staunch critic and opponent of the Islamist Ennahdha party, is the president of the Free Destourian Party (PDL). Former minister Mondher Zenaidi has also announced his candidacy. He is currently living in France while a case has been filed against him for alleged corruption, which will prevent him from running. There are still a few candidates**, but we predict a victory for President Kais Saied.
Transforming the outgoing president into an indispensable president
Similarly, the incumbent president of neighboring Algeria has yet to declare his candidacy for the elections scheduled for September 7. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has made implicit references to his upcoming term, such as “we will fix this problem” and “we will abolish,” but because he has not made a formal announcement, speculation has swirled that there is no consensus within the ruling elite, which largely represents the top military and intelligence officials. In Algerian politics, the so-called defense establishment is the decision-maker.
Even if the rest of the political field is irrelevant, 31 candidates still intend to run for president in a largely symbolic contest. Tebboune will ultimately have to make his decision known by July 18, the deadline set by Algerian law, unless he changes the law.
Of the 31 candidates, Algerian voters can recognize only about half a dozen, including three women: Zoubida Assoul, Louisa Hanoune, and businesswoman Saida Neghza. The other three are pro-Bouteflika Belkacem Sahli, leader of the National Republican Alliance; Islamist Abdelali Hassani, leader of the Movement for Society and Peace; and Youcef Aouchiche, first secretary of the left-wing Socialist Forces Front.
As in Tunisia, to be a candidate, certain conditions must be met, including collecting 50,000 voter signatures or receiving the endorsement of 600 elected officials from at least 29 wilayas (provinces). But as in Tunisia, incumbent President Tebboune is guaranteed to win if he decides to run. All the nationalist political parties have worked hard to prepare for his re-election. While the nationalist parties of the RND, FLN, El Moustakbal Front, and El-Bina are more administrative structures controlled by the government than real political parties, they have substantial resources that dwarf those of their opponents. They also have complete control of Parliament.
In recent months, the outgoing president has been preparing the crowds for the announcement of his election. His recent participation in the G7 summit and Algeria’s seat on the UN Security Council should be highlighted as key achievements of President Tebboune on the foreign policy front.
Domestically, the pro-Tebboune clan will tout wage increases and new housing construction, though progress has been slow. Pro-regime newspapers like Echorouk have also used the latest data from foreign sources on Algeria’s economic gains, including the World Bank’s reclassification of Algeria as an “upper middle-income country,” Algeria becoming Africa’s second-largest wheat producer, and how Algerian gas is a critical energy source in Europe.
While the country has regressed on many fronts, particularly in terms of individual freedoms and human rights, the pro-Tebboune clan will remain busy transforming the outgoing president into an indispensable president.
