A “political dialogue forum” is to bring together Libyan actors from all sides, from this Monday. The UN has set the bar very high.
It is one more meeting on Libya since the start of the conflict in 2011. But the one that begins this Monday in Tunisia is singular. First, because it took place two weeks after the signing of a permanent ceasefire under the aegis of the United Nations. The two main camps clashing in Libya will also be at the same table: the Government of National Unity (GNA) based in Tripoli and recognized by the UN, and the camp of Khalifa Haftar, the strong man of the United Nations. is of the country. Two camps which had resumed their negotiations in September. Last week, they even agreed on the establishment of a roadmap for the ceasefire.
But today’s meeting is intended to be even larger: a great forum to attempt a complete settlement of the Libyan crisis. Women, regional or even ethnic representatives will be present on Monday. An undeniable plus the UN wants to form a government of national unity.
“But Libya’s political landscape is extremely fragmented,” warns Thomas Volk, head of the southern Mediterranean dialogue program for the German Konrad-Adenauer foundation. ” Some criticize the fact that representatives of West and East Libya are not sufficiently integrated into the dialogue process. Therefore, it calls into question the legitimacy of the process of selecting participants even before the start of the consultations. November 9 in Tunis. “
Fragile ceasefire
Cautious too, some put forward a still fragile ceasefire. It is difficult to know if the foreign groups which support the two camps on the ground will leave the country as planned. This ceasefire also does not apply to the fight against terrorist groups in the country. Enough to give each side arguments to resume the fight, or launch a proxy war …
Another complicated point, which will have to be negotiated further: the UN plan for Libya provides that foreign actors stop all training programs on the spot. This concerns Turkish, Russian or Egyptian military programs for example. But what about the European training program of the Libyan coastguard? This remains to be decided. And then it will also be necessary to define where the fighters of the two camps will withdraw over time.
Egypt, Russia or Turkey: a crucial role
The meeting on Monday, therefore, raises hope, but many questions remain open. This gives Thomas Volk a very cautious discourse on the positive or negative outcome of this inter-Libyan political dialogue. “It will depend a lot on how the dialogue process takes shape in the weeks to come. The Libyan people will have to be sufficiently informed of the process and the results,” he said.
Thomas Volk also highlights the ” crucial” role that international actors, and in particular Egypt, Russia and Turkey, will have to play. “They must accept the results of this process and respect the decisions of the Military Commission adopted in Geneva,” he insisted. Namely, that all the external military actors and especially all the mercenaries leave Libya within three months so that the process of political dialogue will then lead to new presidential and parliamentary elections next year.
In the meantime, the coronavirus pandemic obliges, even when it comes to war, the dialogue that begins today will be partly on-site in Tunisia, but also alternately by videoconference.
