Digital and energy transition, a new model of consumption, the primacy of knowledge, and the challenges of contemporary global governance that is unfolding, Algerian leaders also face regional destabilization in the Mediterranean and Africa. Developing an appropriate strategic vision is now an urgent matter. Analysis.
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A contribution from Dr. Abderrahmane MEBTOUL *
University professor, international expert
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The need for a strategic, forward-looking vision is inevitable because the new dynamics will modify the balance of power on a global scale and affect economic, social, and political recompositions, while not forgetting the culture which shapes present and future behavior, within States as well as at the level of regional spaces, hence the importance for Algeria of policies of perpetual adaptation in this world in perpetual movement, faced with geostrategic issues for adequate solutions.
A regional example of the pressure exerted by these changes, it is the gas issues in the eastern Mediterranean that challenge Algeria, whose main gas market is in Europe and whose hydrocarbons with derivatives provide some 33 % of revenue in 2019. of Sonatrach and about 98% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings, with a gas sale price that has fallen by more than 75% in ten years.
I – ALGERIA EXPOSED TO LIBYAN RISK
In the Eastern Mediterranean, important issues are unfolding regarding the geopolitical reconfiguration of the region, in particular, the tensions between Greece and Turkey over gas fields, are only the appearance, and also in Libya.
The control of these important deposits influences the energy sector at the regional level and also indirectly impacts the price of energy and Algeria’s market share towards Europe, its main customer. Thus, the August 2020 edition of the review” El Djeïch” of the ANP (National People’s Army, editor’s note) highlighted that” the evolution of the situation in Libya can be a source of challenges and threats on our national security and that the security of Libya participate in the security of Algeria.”
This is because Libya, with its strategic geographical location at the gates of Europe and Africa, only has a population of no more than 7 million inhabitants but has 42 billion barrels of oil and 1500 to 2000 billion cubic meters of gas, as well as other colossal riches. These arouse much envy, which explains the tensions where clash, by interposed groups, the large and medium powers, promoting insecurity, and terrorism through various trafficking.
This explains, among other things, the tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, the agreements between the government of Tripoli and Turkey – which moreover intends to place itself in Africa through new military bases – for the control of part of the oil fields Hydrocarbons.
The vulnerability of the Sahel and links between trafficking and terrorism
According to various military experts, three factors allow us to understand the links between trafficking and terrorism in the region.
The existence of community, ethnic, and religious movements allow collaboration between terrorists and criminals based on shared values and mutual trust.
Second, the occurrence of an armed conflict.
Third, the constraints that play out in complex transnational trade in illegal goods; exchanges often involve other intermediary parties and certain corruptible segments of the administration.
What further complicates the situation is the non-recognition by the Libyan tribes of the government, which is not in a position to ensure the protection of the borders, having to involve the tribes in the negotiations, and especially since these the latter hold a large batch of weapons drawn from the barracks of the defunct Libyan army.
The Sahel is also a transit zone for smugglers. 50% to 60% of those crossing Libya to Europe go through the region. Recent events have underlined that the crossing of the Mediterranean can turn into a tragedy and that it is urgent for everyone to cooperate to stop migratory flows: to create reception centers, to give the means to the police to control these flows. Migration and create the conditions for return.
This is why special attention should be paid to tensions in the Sahelian belt, which covers, entirely or in part, the following countries: Algeria (in the extreme south); Senegal; Mauritania (in the south); Mali; Burkina Faso (in the north); Niger; Nigeria (in the far north); Chad (center). The Sahel is an under-administered space suffering from chronic poor governance.
The vulnerability of the Sahel stems from a deep vulnerability of the states that make it up, accentuated by demographic pressure. Characterized by strong demographic growth (around 3.1%), the Sahel has more than 100 million inhabitants in 2020 and is expected to double its population within twenty-five years. This growth affects human and especially food security in the region as a whole.
To this are added significant inequalities that accentuate the intensification of radicalization, the result of a combination of factors linked to the individual, his relations, his community, and his relation to society. In addition, foreign interference is manipulating various actors in order to position themselves within this strategic corridor and take control of the many riches of the Sahelian arc: salt, gold, oil and gas, iron, phosphate, copper, tin, and uranium. Feed the lusts of powers wishing to ensure control.
For Algeria, there is an urgent need for both regional and global cooperation in the fight against transnational crime, requiring cooperation in networks through the improvement of databases in order to fight effectively against cross-border crime and terrorism (1). It is, therefore, a question of removing the constraints of the general corruptibility of institutions which have difficulty adapting to the new challenges posed by the sophistication of organized crime networks, and all the more so as inter-jurisdictional collaboration is slowed down by the heterogeneity of legal systems, especially in North Africa and Black Africa.
II – THE GAS FROM THE LEVANTIN BASIN DESTABILIZES
REGIONAL RELATIONS
In fifteen to twenty years, Africa will be home to a quarter of the world’s population. His colossal wealth is the geostrategic challenges of the XXIth century, and early 2030; subject to good governance, the growth axis of the world economy will move from Asia to Africa.
Hence the rivalries between China, the United States, Europe, and certain emerging countries, with a recomposition of forces, at the level of the Middle East.
On the energy front, my friend, the polytechnician Jean-Pierre Haute from KP Intelligence (France), correctly notes that the energy scene is coming to life in the Mediterranean with at least two major areas of maneuver, of which it is interesting to try to understand the ins and outs.
The first theater of operation is that of renewable energies (wind, concentrated solar power, photovoltaic), which has been characterized by the launch of major initiatives based on the idea that technical progress in direct current transmission lines would make it possible to take advantage of the complementarity between the electricity needs of the countries of the North and the availability of space and sunlight in the countries of the South. We were talking about 400 M € of investments and the satisfaction of 15 % of European electricity needs. Today the Desertec project is rather at half-mast,
due in particular to the withdrawal of major industrial players, Siemens and Bosch, and the complete disagreement between the Desertec Foundation and its industrial arm, the Desertec Industrial Initiative (Dii). Dii pursues its ambitions of integrating European, North African, and Middle Eastern networks, while the Desertec Foundation now seems to favor bilateral initiatives in Cameroon, Senegal, and Saudi Arabia.
The second theater of operations is more recent: it relates to the discovery, from 2009, of deep offshore gas resources in the eastern Mediterranean, which explains the current tensions.
The big companies which until then exploited other fields more accessible, more profitable or close to installations on land, are now turning to the eastern Mediterranean, off Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus. and Turkey, as many countries which do not necessarily maintain good neighborly relations. It is because several gas fields have been discovered off the Egyptian, Israeli, Lebanese, or Cypriot coasts, in the heart of what is called the Levantine basin, estimated by the US Geological Survey – at 3,452 billion cubic meters (m3).
” For the riparian states producers or future producers, this gas resource offers the opportunity to gain energy independence and a means of boosting their economy through potential exports,” according to the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies, in a well-documented report.
That is why Turkey is conducting research. Even if Greece and part of the international community accuse it of having entered Greek maritime space, international law is vague in this situation. It does not clearly delimit the borders and geographical limits, the resources being able to be found. Find in reservoirs located under the feet of different countries, and the Turkish initiative could be only the beginning of a long series of tensions that could transform regional balances.
Because geological formations do not know political borders, oil and gas companies have explored the seabed of neighboring countries. The discovery of the Leviathan field (2010) has thus followed one another off the coast of Israel; Zohr (2015) in Egyptian waters then Aphrodite (2012); Calypso (2018) and Glaucus (2019) around Cyprus.
The exploration of Lebanese and Greek waters is less advanced. Athens having already allocated plots to ExxonMobil, to the Spanish Repsol, or to Total. Recall that on February 19, 2018, a contract of 15 billion dollars, considered historical, between Egypt and Israel provides for the supply of natural gas from the offshore reservoirs of Tamar and Leviathan to Egypt, according to the report of the Mediterranean Foundation of ‘strategic studies (FMEN).
At this stage of the situation, we can only hope for the advent of a peaceful and fruitful dialogue in the Eastern Mediterranean between the various actors, as well as a stabilization of Libya through dialogue between the multiple protagonists.
Because the security of Algeria – and more broadly of North Africa and the Sahelian sub-region – will also depend on the development of these two ” front lines. “ As we know, security is the absolute prerequisite for the co-development and prosperity of our regions.
