Speculation, drought and war in Ukraine force a rise in inflation that hurts small stock exchanges in Morocco

Early in the morning, on a market in Salé, near Rabat, customers fiercely negotiate the prices of each commodity, inflated by inflation which flies away at the approach of the holy month of Ramadan, when food expenditure explodes.

“Everything is more expensive, I’ve been buying less vegetables and meat than usual for [several] weeks,” complains Khadija El Asri, a resident of the working-class district of Sidi Moussa, where this sixty-year-old makes her races. 

Dozens of carts and crates of vegetables spread out along the street.

With the mopeds backfiring in the background, transactions enliven the souk and many are the regulars of this market along the Atlantic Ocean who share Khadija’s feelings.

Inflation in  Morocco  is hovering around 8% on an annual basis, fueled by the repercussions of the war in Ukraine , particularly on the cost of fuel and the transport of goods, according to the latest World Bank report.

In January, consumer price inflation (CPI) accelerated to 8.9% year on year, driven by soaring food prices (+16.8%).

“Eight dirhams [nearly one euro] per kilo of potatoes! Buy your potatoes at eight dirhams”, launches a merchant.

“Price manipulation”?

But for Abdessalam El Mahdaoui, a 63-year-old retiree, the prices are “exorbitant”.

“Before, 100 dirhams [nearly 10 euros] was enough for the basket of vegetables. Today, even 300 dirhams are not enough, it’s almost a 200% reduction in the purchasing power of citizens”, he calculates, in a country where the monthly minimum wage is capped at around 250 euros (2 800 dirhams).

The increases mainly concern vegetables (+3.3%) and fruits (+2.6%).

“Tomatoes are also selling for 8 dirhams per kilo today, but they were at 12 two days ago”, testifies a seller of early vegetables, unable to explain this fluctuation.

In recent weeks, soaring prices have been strongly criticized by opposition parties, unions and even in some local media. 

In recent weeks, soaring prices have been strongly criticized by opposition parties, unions and even in some local media. 

The discontent was expressed through rallies, of limited scale and often hampered by the authorities, in several large cities.

Defensively, the government blames recent increases on fraud, monopolistic practices, speculation and “price manipulation”.

According to its spokesperson, Mustapha Baitas, the authorities carried out, from January 1 to February 22, more than 64,000 surveillance operations, listing more than 3,000 violations on the price and quality of foodstuffs.

Other inflationary factors include the worst drought in 40 years and a recent cold snap.

“The drought has pushed farmers to give up cultivating their land this season,” says Abderrahim Handouf, agricultural policy researcher, who also points to the high cost of seeds and fertilizers, of which Ukraine and Russia were major suppliers .

Reduced exports

The Economic, Social and Environmental Council (CESE), an independent constitutional institution, recommends a reform of the marketing circuits of agricultural products characterized by “excessive and poorly controlled intermediation which promotes speculation”.

On the floor, Mohammed Hamali, a 53-year-old retailer, places his six cases full of avocados that he is struggling to sell “it’s so expensive”: “Sometimes I sell at a loss to avoid them do not rot”.

He is asking the government for direct aid for low-income families, like his own, who “suffer from a significant deterioration in their quality of life”.

To mitigate the effects of inflation on households, the government has granted subsidies for certain basic necessities (sugar, flour, gas ), to which is added aid for fuel for transport professionals, which has been renewed for nine years. month. 

A mechanism to replace these subsidies with targeted allowances is planned but has not yet been implemented.

Morocco, whose GDP depends for 14% on agriculture and its exports, has also suspended the shipment of vegetables to West Africa for three weeks.

“Despite these measures, it is low-income and vulnerable households that continue to suffer the most from the impact of the inflationary surge in food prices”, among others, underlines the World Bank.