In France, a dirty campaign ups the ante

On the other side of the political spectrum, Hollande’s Prime Minister, the center-left Manuel Valls was soundly beaten by Benoît Hamon. A former education minister in Hollande’s government, Hamon was among the rebels in the Socialist Party who opposed the party’s liberal turn under Valls during the second half of the ending term.

The sudden dethroning of the two last heads of state effectively meant that in the eyes of voters, they had failed to live up to the role of president, which the French constitution grants no small degree of power.

As the campaign intensifies, the French will be looking for the personality who can best fulfil this role. But the most recent events have turned the race into a dirty game which hints at an ever-growing disenchantment with the political elite.

Slip-ups on the campaign trail

After Sarkozy’s defeat, François Fillon, the Republican candidate and former prime minister in the Republican president’sgovernment, was widely seen as the frontrunner. Canny political positioning allowed him to seduce conservative voters and even those nationalists who had turned to Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right Front National, who is forecasted to reach the run-off stage of the election.

But the spell was broken when Le Canard Enchainé, a satiricalnewspaper, revealed the politician had back-channelled €500,000 to his wife Penelope over several years, employing her as his parliamentary assistant — a role that she did not carry out. Penelopegate sent many voters scurrying back to Le Pen as financial prosecutors circled Fillon and he lashed out at Hollande’s government, alleging a “conspiracy” to scuttle his campaign.

Le Pen has spent many years trying to sweep the toxic legacy of her Holocaust-denying father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, under the carpet, and reinvent the Front National as a viable party of government. That she is being investigated for misusing EU funds — for paying her personal bodyguard with the European Parliament money allocated to parliamentary assistants — matters little to FN voters who are attracted by Le Pen’s stringently anti-EU politics.

The rise of Macron

Another candidate who has benefited from Fillon’s demise is Emmanuel Macron. A former economy minister in Hollande’s government, Macron quit his position early in the campaign to unilaterally embark on a new political venture that many left-wingpoliticians have since decided to join.Based on economically liberal and socially progressive foundations, “En Marche” was conceived as a way to transcend the divide between left and right.

Macron launched his campaign to an immediate surge in the polls, helped in no small part by his mastery of the  dark art of political communication, as well as a nicely vague policy platform. However, he is still considered to have a long way to go in courting voters anywhere on the political spectrum from Fillon’s right-wing fan-base to Hamon’s socialist constituency.

A mark against Macron is that by trying to please everyone, he might fail to please anyone. On 16 February, Macron was seen as flirting with the Catholic conservatives whose vote is split between Fillon and Le Pen by saying that those who had taken to the streets in protest when the government voted to legalise gay marriage had been humiliated.

Only the day before, the candidate declared that France’s actions in Algeria’s war for independence had been a crime against humanity. Right-wing conservatives were infuriated by the comment, which was positioned to attract support from left-wing voters and the large French-Algerian community.

Taken in tandem, these two comments have both vindicated his opponents who call him an opportunist, and confused if not alienated voters who struggle to understand if there really is something of substance behind Macron’s polished façade.

An unresolved issue

Macron’s comments on France’s imperial legacy have thrown into the mix an aspect of the nation’s history that remains controversial. The Algerian War of Independence ended in 1962, 55 years ago, but it is still a topic studiously avoided in public discourse. Most agree that torture, of combatants and civilians alike, was quite obviously morally wrong. But there are those whoargue that colonization its benefits, putting Algeria on the path to modernity. Fillon had earlier declared that France should not be ashamed for colonization, comparing it to an effort by the French to share their culture.

In 2005, the Jacques Chirac’s conservative governmentintroduced a bill to teach positive aspects of colonization in French schools, a bill which was buried after much outcry. Macron’s comment led to a similar reaction, and he had to make a public apology to France’s “pied-noir” community — the French who had to flee Algeria after the war had ended.

Macron’s comment has re-opened deep wounds in the fabric of French society at a time of intense political confusion.

His comments are more likely to simply exacerbate tensions that were already present than widen the scope of political discourse in the country. The same can be said on his comment on gay marriage, which did not leave the headlines for a year or so.

All this outcry is likely to be to the benefit of Marine Le Pen. As the daughter of a former paratrooper during the independence war, her Front National party, which she inherited from him, has long been a refuge for the pied-noir community and those nostalgic forthe colonial era.

A highly uncertain outcome

Le Pen has attracted no small degree of support, but it is doubtful that she would win a national election owing to the French two-rounds runoff system. The nationalist politician has repeatedly failed to win in run-off stages, because of what has come to be known as the Republican Front, that sees the other political parties unite against her.

Macron hopes to emerge from the first round of voting and face Le Pen for the final duel. He would then stand to benefit from the Republican Front, which would see all other candidates support him.

But the more he moves his onto uncertain ground by invoking the specter of emotionally charged subjects, the more the final outcome is cast into doubt. After all, Le Pen has continually worked to move her party in the mainstream of French politics. Xenophobic comments from party members are now systematically sanctioned, and policy proposals like leaving the Eurozone backed by prominent economists. The Republican front is gradually losing its influence on voters, who believe the party has truly changed and is ready to govern.

In seeking to adopt the role of unifier, Macron is playing a dangerous game which could leave the French more divided than ever.