In France, the far right is on the verge of achieving its goal: severing ties with Algeria. The belligerent rhetoric of certain French political leaders, coupled with threats of sanctions and ultimatums against Algeria, has paved the way for a lasting rupture between the two nations. All that remains is to officially formalize the split.
In this context, beyond the Algerian diaspora in France, it’s the French companies doing business with Algeria that will bear the heaviest cost.
At this point, trade is virtually the only thread still connecting Algeria and France. But given the current trajectory, even the economic aspect of their bilateral relationship risks being significantly undermined by the worsening diplomatic crisis.
“Everything has stalled except for trade relations. Political dialogue is almost at a standstill,” Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune observed in an interview published in early February in the French newspaper L’Opinion.
Algeria-France: French Economic Interests at Risk
In less than a month, the relationship has deteriorated further. On Wednesday, February 26, Algiers and Paris took another step toward a complete break. The French government issued an ultimatum to its Algerian counterpart, demanding the repatriation of undocumented Algerian migrants under OQTF (Obligation to Leave French Territory) orders. Failure to comply, France warned, would lead to the termination of the 1968 agreement and the 2007 diplomatic passport accord.
In response, Algiers condemned Paris’s threats and rejected the ultimatum from French Prime Minister François Bayrou.
Deeply offended by the far right’s attacks and belligerent statements, the relationship now risks being finished off by the measures the French government has just imposed on Algeria—and others it has not ruled out taking.
On Tuesday, February 25, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot announced restrictions on Algerian officials with diplomatic passports entering France.
A clear sign that communication channels between the two sides have broken down: the Algerian government was not informed in advance of these decisions, as the Algerian Foreign Ministry made clear in a statement released that same day.
In the statement, a shift in Algeria’s tone is noticeable. Until now, Algerian officials at all levels who commented on the crisis had pointed the finger solely at the French far right and its hostile rhetoric toward Algeria.
This Tuesday, however, the Algerian Foreign Ministry lumped together the extremist faction’s attacks and the French government’s decisions, arguing that the restrictions announced by Barrot on television are part of “a long list of provocations, intimidations, and threats directed at Algeria.”
In its statement on February 26, the Algerian government warned that the current hostile dynamic “could have incalculable consequences for the Algerian-French relationship in all its dimensions.”
It’s as if a door that had been left slightly ajar for reconciliation has now slammed shut. In his L’Opinion interview, President Tebboune had called for strong statements from France and directly invited his French counterpart to speak out.
Algeria’s condition for resuming dialogue was not insurmountable. A renewal of contact could have likely led to resolving the most pressing issues poisoning bilateral relations.
Algeria-France: “Incalculable Consequences” Across All Facets of the Relationship
Emmanuel Macron’s silence raises questions about his intentions. Since January 6, when he remarked that Algeria was “dishonoring itself” by keeping writer Boualem Sansal in detention, he has not uttered a single word about the crisis jeopardizing relations with a major country—and an important partner for France at that.
Beyond the human dimension, with millions of French people tied to Algeria, the economy is another factor that should discourage the French government from pursuing a break. According to the French Foreign Ministry’s economic diplomacy department, Algeria is France’s third-largest customer in the MENA region and its 25th worldwide.
In 2023, trade between the two countries totaled 11.6 billion euros. French exports to Algeria reached 4.48 billion euros, while Algeria sold 7.14 billion euros’ worth of goods to France, mainly hydrocarbons.
Algeria is a key energy supplier for France, meeting 10% of its oil and gas needs. According to French customs data, Algeria was France’s third-largest hydrocarbon supplier in the first 11 months of 2024.
Amid global gas tensions sparked by the war in Ukraine, and when Algiers-Paris relations were still strong, Algeria agreed to double its gas deliveries to France at Macron’s request during his August 2022 visit to Algeria.
Algeria-France: French Companies Caught in the Crossfire
Algeria represents a significant market for French businesses, with around 450 companies directly operating there and ample opportunities in a country with high potential. Algeria invests heavily in infrastructure and aims to develop high-value industries like automotive and telecommunications, making the stakes considerable for French firms.
Moreover, competition is fierce from Chinese, American, Turkish, and other investors. Markets are hard to win and easy to lose.
The French should take note of the wheat example. In just a few years—without even the current political crisis—Russia has emerged as a major supplier to Algeria, challenging France’s cereal industry.
For now, Algiers has refrained from pulling the trade lever. But a full rupture between the two capitals would inevitably have major repercussions on their economic ties. Beyond that, the far right’s threats of economic sanctions against Algeria aren’t helping French companies.
By brandishing such threats publicly, they indirectly encourage Algeria and its businesses to diversify their partners and suppliers to avoid being left vulnerable if the crisis with France worsens.
These threats also validate the Algerian government’s decision to reduce its reliance on French wheat. In its zeal to punish Algeria, the far right may end up punishing French companies instead.
Competitors ready to step in are plentiful. “The slots we don’t fill will be taken by the Italians, Spaniards, or Germans,” warned Michel Bisac, president of the Algerian-French Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a statement to Ouest France.
