The EU has faced many severe tests in recent years: the euro crisis, the refugee crisis, the Russian annexation of Crimea, the vote for Brexit and now the election of a US president hostile to the very idea of EU integration and sceptical about the value of the Nato alliance.
Europe’s trials are set to multiply in coming months. A string of elections and plebiscites loom, which could determine whether the EU retains enough popular support to remain together. Up first in December are the Italian constitutional referendum and Austrian elections, followed in March by polls in the Netherlands. In both the latter countries, victory for extreme-right candidates can no longer be dismissed as remote possibilities. Nor can the survival of the Italian government be taken for granted — and a new period of political instability in Italy might jeopardise the country’s continued membership of the euro.
The EU might be able to absorb shocks in the Netherlands and Austria, and muddle through a revival of the euro crisis. It would be less likely to withstand the election of the far-right candidate in France’s elections in April and May. Marine Le Pen is tapping into the same fears over immigration, Islamist extremism and industrial decay that have given anti-EU forces their lifeblood elsewhere. Her pledge to hold a referendum on EU membership threatens the bloc’s survival.
The events of the past two days, however, are a reminder that there is still strength and dynamism in the political centre. The decision by Angela Merkel to run for a fourth term as German chancellor is testimony to the resilience of a leader who some were ready to write off at the start of the year. It is true that Ms Merkel faces challenges from left and right. Should she win next year’s elections she will face a far more complicated task in building a coalition government than she has in the past. But during a tumultuous period she has been an anchor of stability. She has responded courageously to the migrant crisis and is also virtually unique among western leaders in standing up convincingly for the values on which the western liberal order are founded, while maintaining healthy approval ratings of above 50 per cent.
Meanwhile, François Fillon’s emerging lead in the contest to choose France’s centre-right presidential candidate has shown that the country’s conservative voters are also ready to defy the prevailing populist mood. He has seen off the controversial candidacy of Nicolas Sarkozy, who presided over five wasted years for the French economy. While not a fresh face in politics, Mr Fillon is less an embodiment of the establishment than Alain Juppé — the other former prime minister still in contention for the Republicans. Mr Fillon understands too that reforming the French state is essential for reviving the dynamism of the wider economy.
hould he emerge as the centre-right candidate, he would face the difficult task of persuading the French public that he has a credible programme to fend off the jihadi threat, create employment and transform the country’s economic fortunes. Candidates who have advocated liberal reforms in France have often stumbled in the past.
But such reforms are essential, not just for the French economy, but for the wider European project. If the German government is to be persuaded to take the necessary next steps to underpin the single currency, it needs to see that France is capable of change.
After the upheavals of Brexit and the US election, the big question is whether populism will sweep Europe. The revival of the Franco-German motor is essential to ward off that gathering threat.
Source: France and Germany are still the EU’s best defence
