Context and Impact of the Production Decline
Morocco’s cereal production for the 2023-2024 agricultural season has witnessed a significant decline due to unfavorable weather conditions and reduced sown areas. The arid climate this year severely impacted cereal output, particularly in southern regions. As a result, both sown and harvested areas have shrunk considerably, exacerbating the crisis.
Details of Production Estimates
The estimated cereal production (soft wheat, durum wheat, and barley) for the 2023-2024 season is projected to be around 31.2 million quintals (Mqx). In comparison, the previous season had reached 55.1 Mqx. This 43% decrease highlights the severity of the situation.
Specific forecasts for the marketing year 2024/25 are as follows:
- Soft wheat: 1.55 million metric tons (MMT)
- Durum wheat: 0.75 MMT
- Barley: 0.65 MMT
Consequences for Imports
The production decline has led to a significant increase in import requirements. Morocco will need to import approximately 7.5 MMT of wheat and 1.5 MMT of barley to meet domestic demand. Already one of the world’s largest wheat importers, Morocco could see this position reinforced by the current agricultural crisis.
Government Measures to Mitigate the Impact
In response to the crisis, the Moroccan government has implemented a series of measures to mitigate the impact, including:
- Support for farmers: The government has introduced a support program for farmers, including subsidies and debt relief.
- Promoting water-efficient irrigation techniques: The government is encouraging farmers to adopt water-efficient irrigation techniques to conserve water resources.
- Encouraging research and development: The government is supporting research and development initiatives to develop drought-resistant and high-yielding cereal varieties.
These measures aim to help farmers adapt to the changing climate and improve agricultural productivity in the long term.
Strategic Responses and Adaptations
In response to this crisis, the Moroccan government and farmers are implementing various adaptation strategies. The focus is on water conservation and improving agricultural practices to strengthen resilience against water stress.
Government Initiatives and Support for Farmers
- The Moroccan government is encouraging the adoption of the no-till farming technique. This method aims to improve water conservation during dry periods. For example, the Rabat-Kenitra and Khemisset regions have set a target of applying this method to 200,000 hectares by 2030. Already, 40,000 hectares have been converted this season.
- The government is also maintaining a fixed lump sum premium to support soft wheat imports. This support aims to keep bread prices low and encourage stockpiling.
Efforts to Improve Water Management
- To address reduced rainfall and increasing drought conditions, innovative techniques and technologies are being adopted to optimize water use in agriculture. These initiatives include installing more efficient irrigation systems and using climate data to better plan planting periods.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the drastic drop in Morocco’s cereal production in 2023/2024 poses a major challenge for the agricultural sector. However, through adaptation strategies and government initiatives, the country is working to strengthen the resilience of its agriculture in the face of difficult climate conditions.