The World Bank published this Sunday its report on the outlook for the world economy in 2023. For Algeria, the forecasts are down.
It forecasts a slowdown in global growth which should “ mark time in 2023, falling to 2.1%, against 3.1% in 2022 ”.
In the MENA (North Africa Middle East) region, of which Algeria is a part, the World Bank’s outlook is also down.
“ Growth in the MENA region is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2023, with downward revisions from January projections for both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, ” the report said.
An oil-exporting country, Algeria is among the countries that are expected to be affected by the economic slowdown in 2023, due to the drop in demand for black gold on the world market and the decline in crude oil prices.
The growth of the Algerian economy is expected to decline further in 2023 to +1.7% against +3.2% in 2022, +3.4% in 2021 and -5.1% in 2020, a year during which Algeria’s oil exports had fallen sharply to $20 billion.
In its previous report published last January, the World Bank forecasts a less significant drop in growth to 2.3% in 2023.
In 2022, thanks to the rise in oil prices following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Algeria had exported 60 billion dollars worth of hydrocarbons, a level not reached since 2014.
Algeria: World Bank forecasts lower growth in 2023
In 2022, Algeria recorded surpluses of $18.06 billion in the trade balance and $11.8 billion in the balance of payments.
In 2024, Algeria’s economic growth is expected to rebound slowly to 2.4% before declining slightly to 2.1% in 2025, according to World Bank forecasts.
The 2023 Finance Law forecast a growth rate of 4.1% in 2023 with exports of 46.3 billion dollars.
In the MENA region, most countries are expected to experience a slowdown in their economies in 2023, according to the World Bank. Neither oil-importing countries nor oil-exporting countries will be spared.
“ The outlook remains essentially skewed to the downside, with the impact of the various risks being significantly more unfavorable to oil importers than to exporting countries ,” writes the World Bank.
The World Bank is “significantly ” lowering its growth forecast for the MENA region to 2.0% in 2023 compared to those established six months ago, ” before rebounding to 3.2% in 2024. ”
For oil-importing countries, which “ continue to face internal difficulties, their growth is expected to slow to 3.4% in 2023, down 0.7 percentage points from January. »
In the Maghreb, Tunisia is expected to experience a decline in growth to 2.3% in 2023 against 2.5% in 2022, before rebounding to 3% in 2024.
In Morocco, after two very difficult years with sharp declines of -7.2% in 2020 and 7.9% in 2021, growth should continue to recover to stand at 2.5% in 2023 against 1.1% in 2022. In 2024, the growth of the economy is expected to increase to 3.3%.
