In its October 2022 report, the IMF revised its growth forecasts upwards for Algeria in 2022 and gave the level of barrels the country needs to balance its budget in 2023.
For growth, the IMF has revised its copy. From the 2.4% growth rate for 2022 that it predicted last April, this institution now predicts a growth rate of 4.7% for the Algerian economy.
It will be the first time since 2014 that Algeria will achieve such a performance, since its growth rate has not crossed the 4% mark since this year when the peak of 3.8% was reached, knowing that the rate average growth rate of Algerian GDP between 2004 and 2013, years of expensive oil, was only 3.2%.
In 2020, due to the worsening of the oil crisis due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Algeria posted negative growth of 5.1%, before recovering to 3.5% in 2021, according to the IMF figures.
For 2023, the IMF expects a drop in growth to 2.6% while in its draft finance law (PLF) 2023, currently under debate in Parliament, the Algerian government forecasts a growth rate of 4.1%.
A barrel at more than 149.2 dollars for Algeria
According to the IMF report taken up by Al Arabiya, Algeria will need a barrel of oil at 149.2 dollars to ensure the balance of its budget which will peak at more than 13,700 billion dinars (97 billion dollars on the basis of one dollar to 140 dinars) for revenues of nearly 8,000 billion dinars (57 billion dollars), according to the forecast of the draft finance law 2023.
This bill provides for a colossal budget deficit of nearly 5,700 billion dinars (40 billion dollars) for 2023. The same deficit is expected over the period 2023-2025 (-20.6% of GDP), according to the PLF 2023.
But these forecasts are made on the basis of a benchmark oil price of 60 dollars, whereas currently the price of Brent is displayed just below the 100 dollar mark.
According to the IMF, of ten countries of the Arab world, it is Algeria that will need the highest level of a barrel of oil to balance its budget.
Bahrain, which comes behind Algeria, will need oil at 124.1 dollars, while Qatar would need a barrel at 49.9 dollars to balance its budget in 2023 and Libya a barrel at 54, 1 dollar.
For Saudi Arabia, the largest oil-producing country, a barrel of 60.6 dollars would balance the kingdom’s budget against 65.8 dollars for the United Arab Emirates.
