The Tunisian presidential election should in principle be held next October. However many uncertainties still hover over its organization due to contradictions between the 2022 Constitution and the electoral law. Clarification becomes urgent.
The electoral campaign for the fall 2024 presidential election is well and truly underway. Those who aspire to run will have to be reckless since they must deal with Kaïs Saïed, the president-candidate and, above all, master of the clocks.
The Carthage tenant, who seems to want to renew his lease without having confirmed his intention, has just put an end to questions from the media who were impatient to know the rules laid down for the presidential race.
Obviously, the ballot itself and the participation rate are at stake. The latter will be both an indicator and a source of legitimacy for the next mandate, knowing that none of the popular consultations organized since 2021 – from the referendum to the two rounds of legislative elections via the recent local elections – has succeeded in mobilizing the voters.
Eligibility conditions
Concerning the eligibility conditions, the 2022 Constitution, the foundation of the political system imagined by Kaïs Saïed, provides – in its first section relating to the President of the Republic appearing in Chapter V – that any Tunisian, non-binational, born of parents and grandparents -Tunisian parents only, aged at least 40 and enjoying civil and political rights, can stand for election.
The constitutional clauses are clear but the exercise becomes complicated when the text of the fundamental law refers to the electoral law, which defines the modalities for submitting candidacies to the Independent High Authority for Elections (Isie), thus specifying the conditions of sponsorship, by deputies or voters, necessary for the candidate.
This electoral law should a priori be amended: as it stands, nothing officially sets the date of the first and second rounds of the presidential election. A presidential decree should call voters to the polls and thus indicate the next steps.
But, already, the Constitution and the electoral law diverge on the minimum age of the candidate: 36 years according to the electoral law, 40 according to the Constitution. A point that could, depending on whether one or the other of the texts is applied and depending on the date of the elections, render certain candidacies void. Olfa Hamdi, president of the Third Republic Party, who has announced her intention to run, will, for example, turn 36 in June.
To get out of this ambiguity, the presidential candidate Kaïs Saïed took the trouble to recall that the constitutional text prevails over all others. It therefore seems certain that the electoral law will remain as in previous elections. A line that will be difficult to maintain in the event of an appeal to the administrative court.
The Isie in question
The role of the bodies responsible for monitoring the smooth running of the election, and first and foremost the Independent High Authority for Elections (Isie), also raises questions. Many believe that the latter, whose members are appointed by the President of the Republic, is a judge and party. In contrast, it should demonstrate neutrality and keep an equal distance from all the candidates.
The Isie has also not examined an essential point: the upcoming presidential election was fixed by the 2014 Constitution, which was repealed and replaced in 2022. This paradoxical situation, to say the least, should lead to a necessary amendment of the electoral law to clarify the participation of the opposition and remove inconsistencies with the 2022 Constitution. Moreover, to remain in compliance with the 2022 Constitution, the presidential election should have been held in 2027.
Another major problem: is the absence of a Constitutional Court. In the event of contradiction or the need for an interpretation of the Constitution and implementation of the electoral law, it is normally up to the Constitutional Court, established by the fundamental law adopted in 2022, to decide. However, this institution, whose members are essentially magistrates and jurists appointed directly by the President of the Republic, has still not been set up.
A void in the institutional architecture is accentuated by questions about the holding of transparent elections that comply with democratic rules. The situation of several opposition figures, either in prison or threatened with prosecution, fuels these doubts. A context favorable to strong abstention.
Kaïs Saïed is well ahead in the polls
These uncertainties and paradoxes are reflected in a new survey published in early March. According to the tunisiameters barometer, 75% of the 52% of dissatisfied people are men. While women represent 90% of the 12% of respondents saying they are satisfied with their lot. President Kaïs Saïed’s confidence rating reached 75%, mainly thanks to women and men aged 35 to 54.
It is by relying on this electorate that the outgoing president collects 23.9% of voting intentions in the first round, which places him in the lead. He is followed by the indestructible journalist Safi Saïd (11.2%), then Mondher Zenaidi, a former minister under Ben Ali, with 7.1%. Lotfi Mraihi, the founder of the Popular Republican Union (UPR), is close behind with 6.8%, followed by Abir Moussi, president of the Free Destourian Party (PDL), with 3.8%.
